2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020

Biden widens lead; Trump tries to regain momentum as he restarts rallies in Tulsa; Kamala Harris’s VP odds continue to improve now over 50% while Klobuchar drops out; Biden has strong leads in important FL and MI; Moving WI to Biden widens electoral lead

For a second straight week, Joe Biden has widened his lead over Donald Trump and reached a new high. Biden’s odds improved from 1.80X to 1.76X, improving for a 4th straight week. His odds were at 2.26X prior to that streak. Biden’s odds moving up is a function of Donald Trump’s odds dropping. His odds have dropped the last four weeks from 1.91X to 2.19X last week to 2.26X this week, his lowest since December. The President will try to reverse that trend as he restarts his rallies in Tulsa tonight. The implied head to head advantage for Biden is now at 56.2%, up from last week’s 54.8%.

Here are the full odds:

Kamala Harris continues to improve at the top of the VP list. She is now not only the favorite, but the likely VP nominee as her odds move above 50% from 2.2X to 1.9X. The other big improvement came from Val Demings who has worked her way up from 25.0X when she made her debut on 5/16 to the current 5.3X. Big drops came from Atlanta mayor Bottoms whose odds went from 16.7X to 40.0X and Amy Klobuchar who withdrew from consideration and dropped from 100X to 200X. Prior to Floyd’s death, Klobuchar was considered a front-runner at 4.8X (second place).

Here are the full odds:

There was a long list of state polls released this week. Here are the one that impact some of the swing states:

  • Iowa Trump +1. Keeping Iowa in the Trunp column but last two polls suggest it’s more of a tossup
  • Michigan Biden +13, Biden +16, Biden +2. The +2 seems to be an outlier and at least for now Biden seems to be in control of Michigan
  • Florida Biden +11, Biden +7 consistent with recent polls of this very important state
  • Wisconsin Biden +4. Biden has led 3 of last 4 polls in this state with the fourth being a tie. Moving state to Biden.
  • Arizona Biden +1, tighter than other polls, but Biden still has 3 of the last 4. State could be close to a tossup.
  • North Carolina Biden +2, Trump +3. One for each shows why this state is a tossup
  • Pennsylvania Biden +3. Biden has 3 of the last 4 in this state with two of them by a wide margin (6 and 8)
  • New Hampshire Biden +7 keeping it in Biden’s column

With the move of Wisconsin to Biden, we are now forecasting 335 Biden 203 Trump. Details by state below:

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