Trump’s odds remained flat to last week’s 2.01X, close to his all time high set at the start of August of 1.90X, but also tied for his lowest odds in 10 weeks. Trump has seen his average net favorability rating drop from an average of -10 to the current -12 over those 70 days. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped from 48.9% to 48.0%, as their combined odds increased from 1.92X to 1.86X.

Although Elizabeth Warren (5.65X last week to 5.52X) and Bernie Sanders (11.1X last week vs. 10.9X this week) kept their momentum, the big movers for the Democrats this week were Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang.

Harris came into this week dropping in seven straight weeks over which her odds changed from 5.57X to last week’s 15.2X. She reversed that trend this week by improving to 14.3X. According to a Trump aide, she’s the candidate they most fear as she is the least flawed. Who knows if that’s truly what the Trump campaign believes or if that’s an attempt to help her bump Warren/Biden/Sanders down from the top.

Andrew Yang improved from 26.2X to 21.8X putting more space between his odds and those of Buttigieg, whom he passed last week. This is a new all time high for Yang. Oddly enough, he’s now drawing support from supporters of both Sanders and Trump.

Here are the the candidates that have a better than 200 to 1 shot.

Here’s a 6 month trend of the top 5 candidates:

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