Tonight’s outcome will all come down to how the electoral map plays out, and more specifically it is really contingent on the outcome of just 13 states.
Each candidate has their “safe” states:
Clinton’s Safe States: Clinton currently has 18 safe states (in order of likelihood): DC, MD, CA, MA, NY, HI, IL, VT, WA, NJ, CT, OR, RI, DE, MN, VA, WI, NM for a total of 220 electoral votes. Donald Trump still believes he can win MN, VA, WI, and NM, but polls would suggest otherwise. If he wins those states, it would be in a landslide Trump victory.
Trump Safe States: Trump currently has 20 safe states (in order of likelihood): OK, AL, WV, AR, KY, LA, ID, WY, MS, NE, TN, ND, IN, KS, MO, UT, MT, TX, SD, and SC for a total of 161 electoral votes. It is unlikely that Clinton wins any of these states although the Hispanic vote (38% of Texas’ population is Hispanic) could swing that state in a Clinton landslide.
That leaves 13 states up for grabs.
Clinton’s easiest path to victory: Clinton needs 50 more electoral votes to win. In order, here are the most likely
- ME 4
- MI 16
- PA 20
- CO 9
- NH 4
This path shows why it’s much easier for Clinton to win: assuming the above happens, Trump can win NV, FL, NC, and OH and still lose.
Trump’s easiest path to victory: Trump needs 109 more electoral votes to win. In order, here are the most likely:
- GA 16
- AK 3
- IA 6
- AZ 11
- OH 18
- NC 15
- FL 29
- NV 6
- NH 4
- CO 9
The good news for Trump is he doesn’t need PA or MI. The bad news is he needs almost everything else.
Final Projection:
Of the 13 states in play, the forecast has Clinton winning 7 (ME, MI, PA, CO, NH, NV, and FL) for 88 votes and Trump winning 6 (NC, OH, AZ, IA, AK, GA) for 69 votes. That puts the final projection at Clinton 308 and Trump 230.
Please check out our Election Day Electoral Tracker for updated results
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