There were no changes in the standings of the top 8 this week, but there was a lot of movement in the percentages.

Hillary Clinton declined for the fourth straight week down 2.2% to 41.6%.   That is the lowest she has been since April.  She still has close to a 30% lead over second place Jeb Bush.

Bush also declined but by a smaller margin.  He fell 0.2% to 12.3%.  His lead over Donald Trump continues to shrink and is now less than 4%.

Trump continued his hot streak and was up 1.1% to 8.5%.  Trump was at less than 3% just a month ago and less than 1% two months ago.

Fourth place continues to be  Joe Biden as speculation about him running continues to drive up his odds.  This week he is up to 4.7% from 4.2%.  That increases his lead over 5th place Bernie Sanders, despite Sanders continued improvement.

Sanders improves 0.3% to 4.2%.  He has regained momentum that he lost when the Biden speculation began a month ago.  Sanders had reached as high as 3rd overall back in the middle of August.

Another candidate that is looking to turn it around is 6th place Marco Rubio.  After declining in 8 out of 9 weeks, Rubio seems to have found the bottom and has been up the last two weeks.  This week he is up 0.2% to 3.8%.

The “non-politician” candidates continue to gain ground on the Republican side.  Ben Carson is surging improving from 1% last week to 1.5% this week.  He has doubled his odds in just two weeks and is now in in 9th place, as he jumps over fellow non politician Carly Fiorina.

Despite being jumped by Carson, Fiorina’s odds increased by 0.2% to 1.2%.  This is her second week in the top 10.

Rick Perry “suspended” his campaign and he immediately dropped from 38th place to 52nd place.  He is the first candidate to pull out. The odds would suggest Jim Gilmore will do the same soon.

Here are the full standings for the week:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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For the third straight week, Hillary Clinton has lost ground.  This week she drops 0.5% to 43.8%.  That is her lowest since the end of July.  Clinton’s lead remains large however, with her closest competitor being Jeb Bush.

Bush also dropped 0.5% this week to 12.5%.  That is his lowest since the middle of July.  He has been losing ground to Donald Trump who once again was the biggest gainer.

Trump gained 0.8% to 7.3%.  Trump was less than 2% at the beginning of August and less than 1% at the beginning of July.  This is his 3rd week in 3rd place.

Joe Biden comes in 4th place at 4.2%,  flat to last week.  Biden had risen the past 4 weeks from 1.6% among speculation that he may be running.  He still has not made a decision.

Bernie Sanders comes in 5th place and resumes his rise.  He is at 3.9% up from 3.5%.  Sanders had been pretty stagnant the last three weeks as Biden rose.  With Biden flat this week, the gain in odds went to Sanders.

John Kasich’s steady rise continued for an 8th straight week.  He rose fro 1.9% last week to 2.2% .  Kasich has more than double his odds from 0.9% at the start of the streak.  He remains in 8th place but is within striking distance of Scott Walker who has been heading in the other direction.

Walker was down for the 9th straight week to come in at 2.6% from last week’s 2.7%.  Walker was at 4.1% in the middle of July which was good for 4th place. He is now in 7th place.

There are two new entrants into the top 10.  Carly Fiorina makes her debut in the ninth spot up from 13th place.  Her momentum has even caused CNN to change its debate criteria which now will likely include her.

The other new entrant with tremendous momentum is Ben Carson.  Carson improved from 14th place to 10th place. Recent polls have Carson in second place in Iowa behind Trump.

The rise of Fiorina and Carson has been at the expense of Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. They both fell out of the top 10.  Rand Paul has now fallen for ten straight weeks while Cruz has been fairly flat in his odds with rivals jumping over him.

Here’s a list of all the candidates:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

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Hillary Clinton has declined for the second straight week dropping from 46.2% to 44.3%.  That is the lowest she has been in 6 weeks.  Part of the drop can be attributed to Joe Biden’s recent surge.

Biden was the second biggest gainer this week increasing from 3.5% to 4.2%.  That was enough to allow him to hop over Bernie Sanders and Marco Rubio for 4th place overall. This is the 4th straight week of big moves for Biden as speculation about whether he will run continues.

Half of Biden’s gains came from Sanders who dropped 0.3% to 3.5%.  This was his first drop in over a month.

The biggest gainer of the week was once again Donald Trump.  His odds increased 1.9% to 6.5%.  He continues to be in 3rd place and is now at half the odds of Jeb Bush who is in 2nd at 13%.

Bush was up by 0.2% from 12.8%.  He is the biggest disconnect between betting odds and national polls.

The most consistent gainer among the secondary candidates continues to be John Kasich.  He was up another 0.2% to 1.9%.  Kasich has improved in each of the last 7 weeks and has doubled his odds over that period moving from 14th to 8th place over that time.

Rand Paul has been dropping the most consistently. He dropped another 0.2% to 1.1%.   Paul has either stayed flat or dropped the last 20 weeks and has fallen from 5th place to the current 9th place over that time.

Below are the full odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

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