Updated Odds: Clinton and Rubio Continue Leads after Debate; Trump, Cruz Hot; Bush, Carson, and Fiorina Continue to Drop

There was very little change after a week where both parties had a debate.

Hillary Clinton continued to be the odds on favorite moving up 0.1% to 60.5% which matches the highest odds she has had.

Her closest Democratic competitor Bernie Sanders drops 0.1% to 4.7%.  He has now declined three straight weeks after peaking at 6.0%. He remains in fourth place overall.

Marco Rubio continues to be the hottest candidate in the field.  He gains another 0.4% to 11.6%.  Rubio has improved in 11 of the last 12 weeks when he was at only 3.3% and in 6th place overall. He is nearly twice as likely as the next candidate Donald Trump.

After a few weeks of declines, Trump appears to have turned things around.  He was up 0.4% to 6.2%.  This is his second straight week of gains although he is still lower than where he was just 4 weeks ago.

Ted Cruz also continues to gain ground up 0.2% to 2.1%.  He has now been up the last 8 weeks from 0.9%.   This has moved him from 13th place to 7th place.C

Bush continues to be the coldest candidate in the group, dropping once again by 0.2% to 3.2%.  This is the 8th straight week of drops.  Bush was at 12.6% just two months ago.

Two of the Republican “outsider” candidates have been struggling lately. Ben Carson drops by 0.1% and has dropped the last two weeks from his peak at 2.5%. He remains in 6th place.

Carly Fiorina drops by 0.2% to 0.7% and from 9th place to 10th place. She has now dropped for five straight weeks from a high of 2.9%.   This is the lowest she has been since the beginning of August.

Here are the full odds:

November 14 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 860

Updated Odds: Rubio and Cruz’s Momentum continues; Bush, Fiorina Continue Drop; Trump, Christie Stops Slide

Hillary Clinton continued with her commanding lead, dropping just 0.1% to 60.4%, the second highest week of any candidate.

Her closest rival is Marco Rubio, who has been the hottest candidate the last two months. He improves from 10.9% to 11.2%.  Just 8 weeks ago he was in 6th place at 3.8%.

Clinton’s closest Democratic rival continues to be Bernie Sanders.  He appears to have peaked three weeks ago at 6.0% and has dropped to 4.8% this week. He remains in 4th place overall.

After a two week slide, Donald Trump appears to have stabilized at 5.8%.  He has been as high as 7.6% four weeks ago and 8.5% nine weeks ago.

Two Republicans continue to slide:

Jeb Bush drops 0.4% to 3.4%.  He was at 7.0% two weeks ago and 12.5% eight weeks ago. Over that time he has dropped from second to fifth.

Carly Fiorina has dropped for four straight weeks from 2.9% to just 0.9%.  That has meant a drop from 7th place to 9th place.

Ben Carson’s momentum may be coming to an end.  He drops from 2.5% to 2.3%. That is still good enough for 6th place.

One of the hottest candidates is Ted Cruz.  He was up 0.4% to 1.9%.  He has been up for seven straight weeks.  Over that same span he has moved from 13th place to 7th.

One candidate that has been sliding and hopes to have turned it around is Chris Christie.  He moves from 10th place to 8th place.  He was up for the first time in four weeks from 0.9% to 1.1%.

Here is the full list:

November 7 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 929

Updated Odds after Third Republican Debate: Clinton, Rubio Strengthen Leads; Bush and Fiorina Fall; Carson and Cruz up

Hillary Clinton had another great week.  Her odds improved from 56.2% to 60.5%.  That is the highest any candidate has been.  She is up over 20% in the last 3 weeks.

The other hot candidate has been Marco Rubio.  Rubio continues to hold the 2nd spot for the second straight week at 10.3% up from 7.9%.  This is the highest probability he has ever had and the biggest lead he has had in the Republican race.

Bush, last week’s 3rd place finisher, continued to decline.  He drops from 3rd place to 5th place as he gets passed by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.  This week’s decline for Bush was particularly bad as his odds nearly got cut in half from 7.0% to 3.8%.  This is the 6th straight decline for Bush.  He was at 12.6% just 6 weeks ago.

Despite a decrease in odds, Donald Trump was able to jump up to 3rd place overall.   His odds dropped from 6.8% to 5.7%.  Trump has been struggling lately.  He is down the last two weeks and has not gained any ground since the end of August.

Bernie Sanders also had a tough week dropping from 6% to 5%.  That was still good enough to allow him to move to 4th place overall passing Bush.

Aside from Rubio, the other winners of the debate appear to be Ben Carson and Ted Cruz.

Ben Carson was up 0.6% to 2.5%, his all time high.  He remains in 6th place overall.

Ted Cruz was up 0.5% to 1.6%.  That was enough to move him from 9th place to 7th place.  He was in 12th place as recently as 2 weeks ago.

Aside from Bush, the other loser was Carly Fiorina who dropped from 1.7% to 1.1% moving her to 8th place.

Here are the full standings:

October 31 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 901

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