2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Sanders 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see a small drop; Sanders’ odds tank on news of heart attack; Pete Buttigieg’s odds see a sign of life, jump a slumping Kamala Harris; Clinton’s odd’s increase for fourth straight week

Trump’s Odds saw a small drop this week from 2.17X to 2.20X. This was the second drop in a row after the start of the impeachment inquiry. These are his lowest odds in nearly 6 months. His odds against the top 5 Democrats also decreased slightly from 44.9% to 44.7%, as their combined odds dropped by a lower amount than Trump’s (from 1.77X to 1.78X).

On the Democratic side, this was the first week in the past couple of months where Warren’s odds did not see a significant pickup. They rose from 3.50X to 3.45X, yet another new high.

The big mover for the Democrats was Bernie Sanders on news he was hospitalized because of a heart attack. His odds dropped from 14.3X to 17.9X, his lowest odds since end of January.

The biggest mover among the top candidates was Pete Buttigieg, whose odds showed signs of life for the first time in almost 4 months. He jumped from 31.1X to 26.6X. These are his highest odds in 6 weeks and allowed him to jump over a slumping Kamala Harris. Buttigieg is “flush with cash” and looking to make his mark in Iowa. Harris’ odds dropped from 26.4X to 27.9X, her lowest since July 2017.

For the second straight week, “non candidates” saw big jumps:

Hillary Clinton had her 4th straight week of jumps from 49.9X to 39.5X. Unlike after the first jump, where there was zero news on her potential candidacy, we are now starting to see some chatter like this article suggesting she may be the beneficiary of Sanders potentially leaving the race.

The other increases, much like last week, came from Republicans as a hedge to the potential impeachment:

Here are the candidates with a better than 200 to 1 chance as well as a trend of the leaders

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