Kamala Harris’ odds were little changed vs. last week, coming in at 4.93X compared to 4.97X.
Joe Biden’s saw a moderate drop from 5.15X to 5.46X. These are his lowest in 7 weeks. This also lead to Harris having her widest lead vs. Biden in 7 weeks as well.
Donald Trump’s odds saw a large drop from 7.33X to 8.81X. One the one hand, Biden’s victory was made official by the Electoral College, making a 2024 run for Trump more likely. On the other hand, this was a week where a Trump call to the Secretary of State of GA was released that showed him pressuring him to find fraud and rioters got into the Capitol after Trump asked them to end the “Steal”. There is currently talk of a second impeachment by the House, which if it also goes through the Senate, would take away Trump’s ability to run again. The 8.81X is his second lowest since the initial odds after the election. Those initial odds likely included some chance of him still winning 2020 and therefore being ineligible for 2024.
Interestingly, Mike Pence’s odds were little moved at 12.4X up from 12.7X. These are his highest since the 3rd week of November. He and Trump are reportedly not talking and it seems like he has lost credibility with the Trump base. This might be an interesting “short”.
Who has benefited the most from Trump’s decrease?
Ivanka Trump’s odds improve from 24.0X to 21.4X a new high. She is still in 7th place.
Candace Owens jumps from 52.5X to 34.2X also a new high. She jumps from 24th place to 12th place.
Josh Hawley, who led the opposition to the Electoral College in the Senate, dropped from 46.2X to 48.7X (22nd place)
Kamala Harris continued to lead but saw a drop in odds for a second straight week with her odds moving from 4.87X to 4.97X. This is now her lowest passing by last week’s low.
Joe Biden also saw a drop for a second straight week, but his drop was smaller going from 5.11X to 5.15X. That is his lowest in three weeks. Interestingly, by dropping slower than Harris, Biden has closed the gap to the smallest in five weeks.
Donald Trump also saw a small drop from 7.30X to 7.33X. That is his lowest in five weeks.
Interestingly the biggest mover was Mike Pence. He jumped from 13.9X to 12.7X, his highest since the middle of November. This allowed him to jump over Nikki Haley for 4th place overall. Mike Pence will jump to the front of the headlines next week as he will be playing a role in Congress’ certification of the election and he is getting pressure from Trump to be “loyal”.
A couple of others to keep an eye on this week in Congress and they jockey for positioning with the Trump base are Jos Hawley, who is currently in 20th place overall at 46.2X. He was the first Senator to say he will contest the certification. Ted Cruz is the other, and will fight for the spotlight. He’s currently in 13th place at 35.0X. Both could be short term plays.