For a second straight week Harris’ odds dropped and Biden’s improved. They are now fairly close to each other. Harris’ odds dropped from 4.66X to 4.83X, her lowest since we started tracking the odds 4 weeks ago. Joe Biden’s odds improved from 5.48X to 4.98X, a new high for 2024.
Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week at 7.65X, his second highest behind the 7.48X he had on 11/14.
The one notable change is Nikki Haley jumping over Mike Pence for 4th place. Her odds improved from 13.6X to 13.0X, a new high for her. Mike Pence’s odds tanked dropping from 13.1X to 15.3X, a new low for 2024.
There was an interesting poll of Republicans that showed:
53% of Republicans and GOP primary voting independents would pick Trump in a field of 13 potential challengers
Pence was second with 9%
Sens. Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, and Nikki Haley each got less than 5 percent support
If Trump is taken out of the field, the field is tied between Pence and Donald Trump Jr. Interestingly, Trump Jr. is no where on the boards we are tracking (at least yet), where as his sister is in 8th place.
Kamala Harris continued to lead although her odds dropped a bit from 4.50X to 4.66X. That is tied with her odds from two weeks ago.
Joe Biden’s odds improved from 5.74X to 5.48X but still behind where he was two weeks ago.
Donald Trump saw a small drop from 7.48X to 7.65X. The President still has not conceded two weeks after the race was called by the media.
Mike Pence remained in 4th place but had a large drop from 11.49X to 13.09X.
The biggest move up was by Michelle Obama whose odds increased from 34.00X to 31.09X. Part of it might be related to the attention her husband is getting as a result of his book tour. She cracked the top 10, tying Tucker Carlson for 9th place.
Kamala Harris’ odds improved from 4.66X to 4.50X. as Biden’s odds dropped from 5.24X to 5.74X. There will likely be an interplay between their odds as long as there is a question about Biden’s likelihood to run for a second term.
Donald Trump’s odds had the biggest improvement from 9.25X to 7.48X. The talking this week is around if the President concedes and what happens next. The belief is he will likely launch a rival network to Fox and run again in 2024.
Conservative commentator/author Candace Brown made her debut this week in 18th place at 62X.