Odds for Trump and Biden flat to last week even as Trump’s approval continues to decline, and Biden has another “gaffe”; Val Demings shoots up the VP odds; Biden leads poll in swing state AZ for 7th straight time

Odds for both Trump and Biden remained flat with Trump at 1.91X, tied with the last three weeks for a five week high, and Biden at 2.26X, tied with last week for a 4 weeks high. Trump’s implied odds against Biden saw a small drop from 54.2% to 54.1% (rounding). The disconnect between net approval rating (-7% at start of month, -10% current according to five thirty eight) and state polls (see below) on the one hand and the odds on the other hand continued.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, Val Demings continued to move up the odds a week after making her debut. She further raised her profile this week as she attacked Trump for trying to capitalize on Biden’s comment about African American voters. She rose from 8th place and 25.0X to 4th place and 11.1X.

Here are the full odds:

Only one poll from a swing state was released this week with Biden leading Trump in AZ by 7. Here is the full set of polls:

  • Tennessee Trump +17
  • Virginia Biden +12
  • Arizona Biden +7
  • Washington Biden +26
  • California Biden +28
  • Kentucky Trump +16

AZ only reinforced our call for that state to Biden. We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:

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Odds for Trump and Biden flat with Trump still holding a lead; Harris and Abrams see boost while Demings makes her debut in VP odds; Polls in TX, OH, and NC show Trump in lead while polls in FL and WI show Biden in lead

Trump’s odds remained flat at 1.91X, tied for a 4 week high. Biden’s inched up to 2.26X from 2.27X, a 3 week high. Trump’s implied odds against Biden remained at 54.2% (rounding), tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the odds rose for most female African American candidates: Kamala Harris remained the top candidate and rose from 3.6X to 2.9X. Stacy Abrams rose from 16.7X to 12.5X. Val Demings made her debut at 25.0X (tied with Michelle Obama for 7th place).

Here are the full odds:

Polls from swing states released this week included:

  • Texas +6 for Trump (reinforces TX for Trump after last week’s Biden +1)
  • Ohio +3 for Trump (after 3 straight for Biden, reinforcing why we still have it as a tossup)
  • Wisconsin Biden +3 (3 straight for Biden, but too slim to pull out of tossup)
  • North Carolina Trump +3 (reinforcing the tossup with the last 4 polls being split)
  • Florida Biden +6. This is the biggest news and causes us to pull FL out of the tossup and into Biden’s. Biden has now led the last three polls in that state +4, +3, and now his widest margin of +6

With the change in Florida, the projection is now at Biden 330 and Trump 208. This is a big disconnect from the odds. The odds and the polls are what they are. We are making a judgment call on what the polls mean electorally. People are betting that just like 2016, the polls are misleading. Here are the details behind the electoral forecast:

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Trump’s Odds See Slight Improvement while Biden’s Stayed Flat. Obama’s Odds Jump to 14 Months High; Warren’s VP Odds Improve; Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead in State Shrinking

Trump’s odds inched up from 1.93X to 1.91X. That is a three week high. Joe Biden’s odds stayed flat at 2.27X , his lowest since he became the presumptive nominee. That raised Trump’s implied odds against Biden to 54.2%, tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

With Biden stuck, there have been some movement in the Democratic field. The biggest move this week came from Michelle Obama. She has been more visible lately with the release of her Netflix documentary and publicity about her co-headlining some virtual graduation ceremonies. Her odds jumped this week from 85.0X to 63.9X. She has been improving the last two months from 178.5X at the beginning of March to 113.2X middle of April. Her current odds are at a 14 months high.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, Warren moved a little closer to Harris and Klobuchar. Masto is perhaps the least publicized candidate but is holding up to lead that second tier.

Here are the full odds:

Many polls were released this week, but most were for strong Biden states (NY, NJ, CT, MA) where Biden’s lead ranged from 19 to 34. There was one swing state pull in IA showing Trump +2. We already have Iowa going to Trump, but this follows an early March poll showing Trump +!0.

No changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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News and Odds about the Presidential Elections