Biden reverse five week trend in odds, and reaches best odds in 3 weeks; No changes in the electoral forecast with Biden maintaining a 110 electoral vote lead

After five straight weeks of drops, Joe Biden finally reversed his odds. They improved from 1.90X to 1.81X. These are his best odds in 3 weeks.

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 1.94X to 2.04X, his worst in 3 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 53.0%, since mid March, Biden’s implied odds have ranged between 45.8% (5/16) and 62.4% (8/1)

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

There were three changes in the electoral forecasts that ended up cancelling each other. The forecast from the Cook Political Report was improved for Trump by 14 Electoral Votes while the Economist (+2) and FiveThirtyEight (+9) both improved for Biden. Net net we are still at Biden 324 and Trump 214.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is Texas looks to be more in play than Iowa for Biden. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 5)

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Trumps continues gaining ground on Biden, Biden now holds slim lead; Electoral models little changes still showing a large Biden victory

Trump’s odds improved for a 6th straight week improving this week from 1.99X to 1.94X. These are his best odds in 15 weeks.

Joe Biden managed to hold Trump off from the lead as his odds dropped from 1.83X to 1.90X. That’s his fifth drop in a row and his lowest odds in 13 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 50.6%, lowest in 14 weeks. Trump has now gained on Biden for 5 straight weeks.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

The Electoral forecast continued to be about the Economist and Five Thirty Eight models being tweaked at the edges, often in the opposite direction. This week the Economist model improved for Trump and FiveThirtyEight model dropped for Trump. Interestingly, the FiveThirtyEight model takes into account expected convention bumps. The drop just shows Trump’s bump was lower than what candidates got historically (same for Biden a week back). In total the forecast moved from 326-212 Biden to 324-214 Biden.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is North Carolina now leaning towards Biden. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 7 of these 8 states.

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Trumps continues odds momentum after RNC, but Biden maintains slim odds lead; Little change on the electoral forecasts with Biden having a wider lead than the odds show; Wisconsin closer to flipping to Trump.

Big jump in Trump’s odds after the Republican Convention moving from 2.22X to 1.99X. His odds have now increased for five straight weeks and are at a 13 weeks high.

Joe Biden’s odds dropped from 1.71X to 1.83X. That’s his fourth drop in a row and his lowest odds in 12 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 52.1%, lowest in 13 weeks. Trump has now gained on Biden for 4 straight weeks.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

This week the FiveThirtyEight showed a small improvement for Trump while he Economist for Biden. They offset each other and the overall forecast remained atBiden 326-212.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina and make up for being behind in Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is it appears Wisconsin might be in play a little more for Trump. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls of each of 6 of these 7 states.

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News and Odds about the Presidential Elections