Biden’s odds nearly double again, reaching new highs; Trump’s odds see a drop, but stay ahead of Biden; Sanders odds lowest in three weeks, passed by a soaring Pence for third place; Odds of Clinton, Haley, and Obama also soar

Joe Biden had more large wins on Super Tuesday II including winning Michigan. As a result, his odds have basically doubled for the second straight week. They have now gone from 8.70X two weeks ago, to 3.99X last week, to 2.12X this week. These are the highest odds for any Democrat this cycle.

Donald Trump’s odds saw a sizable drop, possibly because polls show Biden is a more formidable opponent head to head than Sanders (more on that in a bit), or possibly of the impact of the Corona Virus. After being in a tight range of 1.59X to 1.60X the last five weeks, Trump’s odds dropped to 1.97X, his lowest in three months. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders improved to 1.98X, just shy of Trump. That’s an implied 50.2%/49.8% probability edge to Trump.

Sanders’ disappointing finish on Tuesday dropped his odds from 12.0X to 32.0X. It’s hard to believe just two weeks ago, he was at 3.99X. This is the lowest he has been in over 3 years (Jan 2017).

Mike Pence’s odds more than doubled. Perhaps that’s a hedge on Trump getting sick. Pence’s visibility has also increased tremendously driven by Trump appointing him as the head of the Corona Virus task force. The odds are now at 29.3X, his highest in over a year. These odds actually put him ahead of Bernie Sanders.

There were other jumps in people not running:

  • Hillary Clinton jumped from 71.1X to 39.6X, her highest in 10 weeks
  • Nikki Haley jumped from 242.7X to 116.1X, her highest in 8 weeks
  • Michelle Obama jumped from 178.5X to 116.5X, her highest in 10 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

For the second week we are turning the focus to the state by state polls of Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Sanders. These are starting to show a big differentiation, perhaps due to Biden’s momentum. In the last two weeks, polls have been done in 11 states. In 9 of those 11, Biden does better than Sanders against Trump. The other two are even. The biggest differences:

  • AZ, where two polls show Biden up by 8 pts and 6 pts, while they show Sanders ahead of Trump by 5 in one and Trump ahead by 7 in another.
  • Florida poll shows Trump up over Biden by 2 (statistical tie), but up over Sanders by 6
  • Pennsylvania Biden by 6 over Trump but Sanders only up by 2 (statistical tie)

The impact of those three states leads to a big victory for Biden over Trump (as we stand today) but basically a tossup for Sanders.

Here are the state by state projection based on the polls and the history of those states:

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Biden’s odds surge on the back of South Carolina and Super Tuesday performance and the dropout and endorsement of rivals; Trump’s Odds remain near all time highs; Sanders’ odds tank to a 4 month low; Who’s a tougher matchup for Trump? A State by state look

There was a tremendous amount of shakeout in odds this past week on the Democratic side, to reflect the big changes in the field. It all started with an endorsement of Joe Biden prior to the South Carolina primary by Jim Clyburn. Although Biden would have likely won with or without the endorsement, it helped Biden to a route as he more than doubled Bernie Sanders’ vote total. That was followed up shortly with Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer all dropping out and endorsing Biden prior to Super Tuesday. This gave Biden the momentum for Super Tuesday, where he beat Bernie Sanders (who prior to the weekend was believed to be the winner for that important day). This also ended the short lived but expensive campaign of Michael Bloomberg who endorsed Biden as well, and ended the campaign of Elizabeth Warren, who has yet to endorse anyone.

Where does this leave us as far as the odds with really three candidates remaining?

Despite the improved likelihood of a centrist (Biden) winning the Democratic ticket, and the bad headlines on the Coronavirus/stock market, Trump’s odds remained very resilient. They were flat to last week’s 1.60X and just shy of the all time high of 1.59X. They have been either 1.59X or 1.60X the last 5 weeks. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders are currently 2.93, which puts Trump’s odds against those two at 65.2%

Joe Biden’s results obviously saw a tremendous jump from 8.70X to 3.99X, his all tine high.

3.99X is exactly where Sanders was last week. He dropped this week from 3.99X to 12.0X. His lowest since mid November.

Hillary Clinton and Mike Pence remained fairly strong as the alternatives at 71.1X and 74.6X, and Michael Bloomberg, with the ability to come in from sidelines with his billions should Biden falter is at 166.0X.

With the Democrats down to two main candidates, we will transition this blog to look at those two candidates against Trump on a state by state basis. Below is the current summary of the more important states (either swing or high number of electoral), and recent polls of the two candidates vs. Trump. This will get refined as more polls start coming in. Currently, this crude method has Democrats winning by 50 electoral votes regardless of candidate (the opposite of what the betting market suggests). Although the result is the same whether it’s Biden or Sanders, it’s important to point out that with the 6 states with recent polls, Biden does better against Trump in 4 of them than Sanders does. They both do equally against Trump in the other 2.

Here are the current odds of the remaining field as well as the state by state early look:

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Sanders’ win in NV propels his odds to another new high; Trump stays near all time highs; Biden big winner as centrist Dems look to consolidate; Bloomberg sees second big drop in a row, as he continues to eye Big Tuesday; Warren and Klobuchar reach new lows

Donald Trump’s Odds remained near an all time high for a fourth straight week coming in at 1.60X vs. last week’s 1.59X. The odds had been at 1.59X. the all time high, for three straight weeks. Trunp’s odds against the top 5 candidates decreased slightly from 56.7% to 56.5% as their combined odds improved from 2.09X to 2.08X.

Sanders dominated Nevada and his odds improved from their previous high of 4.22X to this week’s 3.99X. Sanders won just shy of 47% of the vote and 2/3 of the delegates.

Joe Biden was the odds winner on the week as it became clear that Democrats not wanting Sanders have to unite behind one candidate. His odds jumped from 20.3X to 8.71X, his highest in four weeks. He is likely to win South Carolina. If he disappoints, the centrist Democrats will have to find someone else to get behind for Super Tuesday, including possibly Bloomberg.

Michael Bloomberg had his second bad week in a row dropping from 7.58X to 12.0X, which is where he was six weeks ago. He took part in his second debate and had a small improvement but still not enough. He of course has bid everything on Super Tuesday and would likely benefit from a Sanders win with all the moderate votes being split up.

Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar all had their odds cut by nearly a half as the realization that they have not done well enough to jump close to Sanders and are not likely to do well in South Carolina, means they have very little left for Super Tuesday:

  • Buttigieg dropped from 24.1X to 45.4X, his lowest in 4 weeks
  • Warren dropped from 53.4X to 97.6X, her all time low. She has the high for the Democrats this cycle (higher than Sanders is currently at) at 3.3X in October of 2019
  • Klobuchar dropped from 86.7X to 178.5X, a new all time low for her

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds for the field:

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News and Odds about the Presidential Elections