Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop from last week’s all time high of 1.72X to 1.75X, the second highest all time. This as the Senate started its Impeachment Trial. At the same time, the odds of the top 5 Democrats saw a small increase from 2.05X to 2.00X. This puts Trump’s odds against those 5 top Democrats combined at 53.3%, down from last week’s high of 54.3%.
The odds on the Democratic side are beginning to suggest it’s a three person race for that nomination.
Bernie Sanders continued to be the hottest name, and seems to be peaking at the right time. His odds improved from 6.47X to 5.61X, a new all time high for him. This also allowed him to jump over Joe Biden for the highest odds on the Democratic side.
Donald Trump’s Odds continued climbing on the eve of the Senate Impeachment trial, jumping this week from 1.82X to 1.72X. another new high, the third in a row. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved to 54.3% over last week’s 52.1% as their combined odds dropped from 1.98X to 2.05X.
The main story before and during the debate is the friction between Sanders and Warren. The combination of the debate and the controversy had very little impact on Sanders’ odds. He had a small drop from 6.41X (his high for this cycle) to 6.47X. Warren on the other hand continued to drop, this week from 17.3X to 20.5X. her lowest since June.
Warren wasn’t the only Democrat to see a big drop on the week. Buttigieg dropped from 21.5X to 31.2X, his lowest since March 2019. Amy Klobuchar dropped from 67.3X to 82.7X, her lowest in the last 9 weeks.
Michael Bloomberg didn’t participate in the debate, but the fact that he’s now on Trump’s radar speaks to the potential of his candidacy being problematic to Trump. His odds improved from 13.8X to 13.4X another new high.
Below are how the odds changed for the debate participants, a trend of the top candidates, and the overall odds of the top 25:
Donald Trump’s odds reached another new high with an improvement from 1.85X to 1.82X. Over the last 7 weeks, his odds have improved from 2.27X to 1.82X, a 25% improvement. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 51.7% to 52.1% as the Democrats’ combined odds remained flat to last week at 1.98X.
Bernie Sanders continued to be the hottest name this week improving from 7.66X to 6.41X. This is now a new high for the Senator, beating a previous high of 6.74 reached in April 2019. Sanders currently holds the lead in a new Iowa poll. He is now within striking distance of Joe Biden who saw a drop this week from 5.51X to 5.79X.
The biggest jump on the week belonged to Michael Bloomberg. He has been spending millions on ads, and it’s starting to pay off in the polls. Bloomberg’s odds improved from 17.6X to 13.8X, a new high. Bloomberg’s improvement, combined with another bad week from both Elizabeth Warren (she dropped from 13.0X to 17.3X) and Pete Buttigieg (he dropped from 16.9X to 21.5X), allowed him to jump from 5th into 3rd place for the Democrats.
Here are the odds of the top 25 candidates and a trend of the top candidates: