The hottest name for the Democrats from June to mid October was Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg then took over and the momentum. Could Bernie Sanders be next? Sanders saw his odds improve from 10.5X to 10.1X. Although that is not a big jump, it is significant when put in context. He was the only one of the top 5 Democrats to improve on the week and combined with Warren’s continued slipping, he was able to pass her into 4th place overall. Although the polls don’t quite reflect this reality, his positioning in early states may lead to momentum there that will carry to the national polls.
Elizabeth Warren’s odds kept slipping, this week from 9.5X to 10.2X. These are her lowest odds in nearly 6 months. Just four weeks ago, Warren was the leader for the Democrats. She has since fallen behind Biden, Buttigieg, and now Sanders.
One candidate that has been gaining consistent momentum under the radar is Amy Klobuchar. Her odds improved this week from 62.0X to 60.8X. She has improved in 8 of the last 9 weeks when she was at 141X when she was in 16th place overall. She is now in 11th place overall.
We are now down to only 18 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot (with only 11 of them officially in). Here is the list:
Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement up from 2.28X to 2.27X. That is the second straight small increase. His odds have been in a range of 2.24X to 2.29X over the last 8 weeks. His odds against the top 5 Democrats ticked up a bit from 45.5% to 45.6% as their combined odds stayed flat at 1.90X.
The biggest move up was from Michael Bloomberg as he nearly double his odds from 27.7X to 14.7X. This is a brand new high for him and puts him in 6th place overall. Bloomberg’s money allows him not to have to gain momentum by winning early, delegate poor states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead he is focusing on outspending his opponents for Super Tuesdays.
Elizabeth Warren continued her nose dive, dropping this week from 7.32X to 9.53X. This is her lowest since the end of July. Among other things, she seems to have lost the momentum in Iowa to Pete Buttigieg. With this recent slip she was passed by Buttigieg who improved from 8.88X to 8.84X for third place overall. Her gap with Bernie Sanders has tightened. Sanders came in this week flat to last week at 10.5X.
Donald Trumps’ odds saw their first improvement in nine weeks, inching up from 2.29X to 2.28X. These odds are still slightly lower than two weeks ago at 2.27X and around 20% from the all time high of 1.90X achieved in August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved by a wider margin from 44.3% to 45.5%. The top 5 Democrats combined dropped from 1.82X to 1.90X as a result of a drop in Warren’s odds.
The fifth Democratic debate took place and there is a disagreement between what the pundits think and what the odds show when it comes to Warren and Biden. Many media outlets, like Vox , CNN, and NYT have Warren outperforming Biden. The odds on the other hand, show a sharp drop for Warren. Her odds decreased from 5.32X to 7.32X, over a 25% drop. This is her lowest since the middle of August. Although she had the biggest drop in this debate, Warren is still up the most since the beginning of the debates.
Joe Biden’s odds saw a small improvement, faring much better than what the media thought of him. His odds improved from 7.22X to 6.88X. This small increase along with Warren’s fall was enough to bump him back up to the favorite. These are his best odds since the middle of September.
There seems to be two big winners from the debate. Pete Buttigieg came out of the debate with his recent momentum intact. He improved from 10.3X to 8.9X, his second all time high in a row.
The biggest winner, at least from an improvement in odds perspective, was Amy Klobuchar. Her odds rose 50% from 94.6X to 62.8X. She jumped over Gabbard and Harris into 11th place overall.
Here are the big winner and losers from this debate as well as since the start of debate season:
Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates: