Biden’s odds dropped from 1.56X to 1.61X, his lowest in 4 weeks.
Trump’s odds improved from 2.58X to 2.43X, his highest in 7 weeks.
Implied odds for Biden now at 60.1%, lowest in 4 weeks
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
On the VP side, we are near the end. Harris maintained the lead she has had from the start, dropping slightly from 2.3X to 2.4X. The hottest name last week was Bass. Last weekend basically took her out of contention as many questions came up about her and Cuba. Her odds dropped from 7.7X and 3rd overall to 100X and 8th overall. The hot name currently is MI Governor Whitmer who rose from 10th place and 200X to 3rd place and 8.3X. She basically traded places with Bass. Bass’ drop also helped Rice who remained in 2nd place and improved from 4.5X to 3.0X.
The electoral projections moved in the opposite direction of the odds as Biden’s lead moved from 315-223 to 329-209 with three models being updated. The six models have Biden winning from by anywhere between 176 to 64 Electoral votes.
Biden reaches another all time high at 1.56X up from last week’s 1.57X
Interestingly Trump’s odds also increased from 2.60X to 2.58X (Other alternative candidates dropped)
Implied odds for Biden now at 62.4%, slightly higher than last week’s 62.3%
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
On the VP side Harris continues to lead but she’s had an up and down week. She went into the week at 3.0X, dropped, and in the last two days has rebounded to the current 2.3X. She has led every week. The hottest name remains Bass who jumped from 8.0X to 7.7X. She remained in 3rd place overall behind Rice. Here’s the VP Odds:
Below are the electoral projections from 6 different sources. The only change was from the Economist whose model moved from 188 for Trump to 191. That was not enough to move the overall average which remained at 315 Biden to 223 for Trump.
Biden at an all time high improving from 1.60X to 1.57X
Trump drops from 2.55X to 2.60X, his lowest odds since March 2019
Implied odds for Biden now at 62.3%
Here’s the overall odds and trend:
On the VP side Harris continues to lead but her lead continues to shrink. Rice and Bass have been showing the biggest improvements the last two weeks and are now her closest competitors. Here’s the VP Odds:
Below are the electoral projections from 6 different sources. The average currently is 315 Biden to 223 for Trump. That is an improvement of 1 electoral vote for Biden vs. last week.
