Joe Biden’s saw a small improvement in odds from 1.81X to 1.80X. This was his second straight increase.

Donald Trump saw the mirror image change decreasing from 2.04X to 2.05X.

As a result, the implied odds for Joe Biden moved up slightly from 53.0% to 53.2%.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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As we get closer to the election, the models are being updated more often. Four models made changes this week with two benefiting each candidate. The net result is a one point increase for Trump. The forecast is now at 323 for Biden and 215 for Biden. Details below:

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is Iowa’s flip appearing easier to turn for the Dems than Texas. This brings it back to where it was two weeks prior. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 5)

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After five straight weeks of drops, Joe Biden finally reversed his odds. They improved from 1.90X to 1.81X. These are his best odds in 3 weeks.

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 1.94X to 2.04X, his worst in 3 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 53.0%, since mid March, Biden’s implied odds have ranged between 45.8% (5/16) and 62.4% (8/1)

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

There were three changes in the electoral forecasts that ended up cancelling each other. The forecast from the Cook Political Report was improved for Trump by 14 Electoral Votes while the Economist (+2) and FiveThirtyEight (+9) both improved for Biden. Net net we are still at Biden 324 and Trump 214.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is Texas looks to be more in play than Iowa for Biden. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 5)

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Trump’s odds improved for a 6th straight week improving this week from 1.99X to 1.94X. These are his best odds in 15 weeks.

Joe Biden managed to hold Trump off from the lead as his odds dropped from 1.83X to 1.90X. That’s his fifth drop in a row and his lowest odds in 13 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 50.6%, lowest in 14 weeks. Trump has now gained on Biden for 5 straight weeks.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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The Electoral forecast continued to be about the Economist and Five Thirty Eight models being tweaked at the edges, often in the opposite direction. This week the Economist model improved for Trump and FiveThirtyEight model dropped for Trump. Interestingly, the FiveThirtyEight model takes into account expected convention bumps. The drop just shows Trump’s bump was lower than what candidates got historically (same for Biden a week back). In total the forecast moved from 326-212 Biden to 324-214 Biden.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is North Carolina now leaning towards Biden. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 7 of these 8 states.

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