The odds came back with Donald Trump out of the hospital with a dramatic drop for the President. Trump’s odds dropped from 2.08X to 2.82X, his lowest since March 2019. Biden’s odds improved from 1.79X to 1.44X, his best odds to date (Previous high of 1.56X on 8/1)

The implied odds for Biden are now at 66.2% compared to 53.8%.

Updating the Predictit.org odds, Biden improved from 0.64 to 0.66 while Trump improves slightly from 0.37 to 0.38. Trump’s improvement came from Pence who dropped from Pence dropping from .05 to .02. Below is some of the previous Predictit.org odds.

9/26: Odds for Trump were 0.57 Biden, 0.47 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.05 Harris. These would imply odds of 54.8% for Biden, close to our implied odds from last week of 53.8%.

9/30 after the Presidential debate: 0.62 Biden, 0.42 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.02 Harris (Harris drops as Biden doesn’t flat on his face at debate?). The implied odds for Biden go up to 59.6%

10/2 Trump announces he has COVID and later gets admitted to Walter Reed: 0.64 Biden, 0.37 Trump, 0.05 Pence (hedge on Trump not finishing campaign), and Harris 0.04 (hedge on Biden getting COVID?). The implied odds of JUST Biden vs. Trump are now at 63.3%. Odds of the 4 combined tilt 61.8% Democrats.

The forecasts are now being updated more regularly. 5 of the 7 models moved in Biden’s direction while two stayed flat. The forecast is now at 337 Biden and 201 Trump, an all time high for Biden.. The models continued to converge and over half of them actually have the same forecast of 333 to 206. Here are the different models:

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Keeping it simple: (exactly the same as last week( For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, and make up for being behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states most likely to flip have are currently forecast at Trump +0.7% in Georgia and Biden +0.5% for Ohio. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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With Donald Trump in the hospital with COVID, The betting odds on the betting consolidation site we use have been suspended. It doesn’t make sense to get odds from other sites for trend purposes.

Predictit.org has a market that we can look at in the mean:

9/26: Odds for Trump were 0.57 Biden, 0.47 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.05 Harris. These would imply odds of 54.8% for Biden, close to our implied odds from last week of 53.8%.

9/30 after the Presidential debate: 0.62 Biden, 0.42 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.02 Harris (Harris drops as Biden doesn’t flat on his face at debate?). The implied odds for Biden go up to 59.6%

10/2 Trump announces he has COVID and later gets admitted to Walter Reed: 0.64 Biden, 0.37 Trump, 0.05 Pence (hedge on Trump not finishing campaign), and Harris 0.04 (hedge on Biden getting COVID?). The implied odds of JUST Biden vs. Trump are now at 63.3%. Odds of the 4 combined tilt 61.8% Democrats.

Here’s a trend of the odds courtesy of Predictit.org. Note the bar graph reflecting the volume which spikes a bit with the debate and then goes much higher with the hospitalization.

The models were also updated. Any model with a change showed improvement for Biden. The other interesting thing about the models is their convergence. We started tacking the models back in July and there was a standard deviation between their results for Trump of 27. It is now down to 8 electoral votes. The average is now at 327-211 Biden victory, up from 323 last week. This is close to the high achieved by Biden on 8/8. Trump’s high was at the start of the tracking at 224 Electoral votes. Here’s the summary:

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, and make up for being behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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Joe Biden saw another small improvement in his odds this week from 1.80X to 1.79X. This is his third straight increase. He was at 1.90X four weeks ago.

Conversely, Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop from 2.05X to 2.08X. These are his lowest odds in 5 weeks.

As a result, the implied odds for Joe Biden moved up slightly from 53.2% to 53.8%.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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Three model changes have been made this week, but we are still where we were last week, 323 Biden and 215 Trump. The average of the forecasts has been a fairly tight range in the last eight weeks with Biden winning with with a high of 328 and a low of 323. That said, we are at an 8 week high for Trump. Details below:

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, and make up for being behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. There was a big change this week as it appears Ohio might be moving towards Biden (by the thinnest of margins) The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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