The betting odds for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump remained flat to last week. Biden is at 1.45X, just shy of his all time high set on 10/10 at 1.44X. Trump is at 2.76X, tied for his lowest in 3 weeks, and 3rd lowest since March 2019. The implied probability remained flat at 65.6%. That compares to 73.9% for Clinton the weekend before the elections in 2016. Translation: The betting public is more shy of believing the polls than they were 4 years ago.

Here are the odds:

Lots of last minute updates to the Electoral projections, all of which we went Biden’s way. The average of the current forecasts is now at an all time high for Biden at 349 to 189. That is up from last week’s 337 to 201.

Taking the polls and the leader in each state gets us to the following forecast:

How does the 351 in the above or the average of the models compare to 4 years ago? Our final projection 4 years ago was Clinton 308 and Trump 230. Translation: While the betting public is less sure about the outcome, the models/polls are more sure. Both however, have Biden in the lead.

Time to see what happens. This is the last post for this cycle. We will be back once odds for 2024 are out, hopefully shortly.

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Joe Biden’s odds rebounded from last week’s 1.52X to to 1.45X, just shy of his all time high two weeks ago of 1.44X. Trump’s odds dropped from 2.59X to 2.76X, ahead of where he was two weeks ago after the COVID diagnosis (2.82X) but below where he was prior to getting ill (2.08X).

The implied probability for Biden increased from 63.0% to 65.7%, his second highest behind the 66.2% from two weeks ago.

Here are the odds:

Although Biden’s odds improved, the Electoral forecast saw a little bit of a dip from a 338-200 projected win to 337-201. There were only two models that were updated: Five Thirty Eight and Economist, and both get updated daily. The range between the models reached an all time low this week.

Keeping it simple: The big move this week was Ohio swinging back to Trump. Georgia continues to be the ultimate flip of a coin. For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, win the Georgia coin flip, and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states that appear to be the most hotly contested are Georgia and Iowa. The most difficult state that Trump has to turn is Pennsylvania which is currently Biden +5.5%. That was +6.5% last week. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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Donald Trump’s odds rebounded a bit from 2.82X to 2.59X. Although that is a big jump, it’s still his second lowest since the end of July. Biden’s odds dropped from 1.44X to 1.52X. The implied Biden probability decreased from 66.2% to 63.0%. Despite the drop, this is still his second highest implied odds.

Here are the odds:

There was very little change in the electoral forecast as one model increased the votes for Trump and two others for Biden. In Total, the Biden Electoral total increased by one and is now at 338 Biden and 200 Trump. The edge for Biden ranges from 127 to 156 Electoral votes. Here are the different models:

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Keeping it simple: It looks like Georgia might be moving towards the Democrats this week. For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas and Iowa, and make up for being behind in Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states most likely to flip have are currently forecast at basically a tossup in Georgia and Biden +0.2% for Ohio. The most difficult state that Trump has to turn is Pennsylvania which is currently Biden +6.5% The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 2)

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