Hillary Clinton continues to have a large, but shrinking lead.  Her probability is now at 41.1%, well above the 2nd place candidate Marco Rubio who is at 4.5%.  The probability has shrunk however from 44.4% at the beginning of the month.

Chris Christie has continued to rebound and is now in 4th place overall switching spots with Rand Paul, now in 5th.  Christie was the top GOP candidate as late as the end of May before he started trending down, bottoming beginning of August at 8th place.

Paul Ryan dropped to 7th place from 6th swapping spot with Elizabeth Warren.

The biggest move of the week was another drop by Rick Perry.  Perry is now in 18th place after peaking at 4th place at the beginning of the month. He is now behind much lesser known names like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.

Dark horse of the week goes to Andrew Cuomo who is now in 11th place.  He has moved up each of the last 4 weeks from 20th place.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

Views – 911

Iowa Poll of 500 voters was released today.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:

Mike Huckabee      13%
Chris Christie          11%
Rick Perry                9%
Jeb Bush                  7%
Rand Paul                7%
Paul Ryan                 6%
Rick Santorum          6%
Ted Cruz                  5%
Marco Rubio            5%
Scott Walker            4%
John Kasich              1%
John Huntsman          1%

Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list.  35% said they would vote for Romney.  What’s interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney.  On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:

Hillary Clinton                     66%
Elizabeth Warren                10%
Joe Biden                           8%
Andrew Cuomo                 4%
Martin O’Malley                 2%

Views – 910

There is a lot of debate about whether the indictment hurt or helped Rick Perry the last two weeks.  One thing is very clear: For those putting money on the elections, it hurt.  Rick Perry had the biggest drop among the top candidates moving from #8 to #15 with the probability dropping from 2.1% to 1.4%.  He peaked at 4th place on 8/2 when his probability was at 3.1%, more than double what it is now.

One of the beneficiaries seems to be fellow Texan Ted Cruz who jumps back into the top 10 at #9 from last week’s #11.  Cruz had consistently been in 10th place before being replaced by Romney back in early August.

In other moves in the top 10, Marco Rubio has now caught Jeb Bush for 2nd place.  They both shared the spot in June and July as well. Their individual probability is at 4.3%.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the big leader with a probability of 41.4%.  That number has been eroding recently, however, after having peaked at 44.4% on 8/2.

One person to keep an eye on is Martin O’Malley.  He is currently in 11th place (now ahead of more known names like Perry, Cuomo, and Jindal) and at only 1.5% probability.  His numbers have improved however each of the last three weeks.  Perhaps it’s purely a mathematical consequence of Clinton’s numbers dropping.

Views – 959