Hillary Clinton continues to be the dominant leader at 38.1% but she has been drifting down.  She peaked o 8/2 with a 45.5% probability.

Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan each gained 0.1% of that 0.5% drop, but remained in their positions (3rd, 4th, and 8th)

Another 0.1% went to Mitt Romney, who has moved up each of the last three weeks, jumping into the top 10 from 11th place with a probability of 1.7%.  He jumped over Ted Cruz and Andrew Cuomo.

The last 0.1% went to Kirsten Gillibrand who has moved from not being on my board of 60 candidates in May to #15.  She has been generating a lot of buzz from different sources

The biggest drop was Cory Booker who moved from #36 to #42.  This is an odd drop as he has a very high likelihood of being re-elected to the Senate in November.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

Views – 871

It’s not surprising that Hillary Clinton would lead over GOP candidates in NJ:  Obama won the state by 17%   58-41 in 2012.

One would think, however, that the state’s Governor would get some home court advantage.  Chris Christie does, in that he’s the closest to Clinton in the poll by Quinnipiac.  That said, he would lose to Clinton in the state 50-40.  This is close to the gap from the August poll where Clinton’s lead was 50-42.

The lead increases against the two other GOP candidates polled.

Clinton has a 21 point lead over Jeb Bush  53-32 .  It was similar back in August (54-34)

Clinton has a 24 point lead over Rand Paul 55-31.  That is an increase over the 20 point lead she had in August (55-35).

 Link to the poll
Link to list of all candidates and their odds
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent news on the race
Link to recent Polls
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 811

Another week of very little change as far as the odds.

Hillary Clinton continues to lead at 38.6% with her closest Democratic rivals far behind.  Elizabeth Warren stays in 6th place overall at 2.8% and Joe Biden in 7th at 2.3%

On the Republican side Marco Rubio continues to lead at 5.0% followed by Jeb Bush and Chris Christie at 4.1% and 4.0% respectively.

The only big movement among the top candidates was Mitt Romney who jumped from 14th last week to 11th this week hopping over Tim Pawlenty, Scott Walker, and Martin O’Malley.  Romney bottomed two weeks ago when he was quoted saying  ‘I’m Not Planning on Running’ .  Since that comment speculation of him running has been on the rise.

Betting odds not only exist for what candidate wins the presidency, but also for what party will win and what the gender of the winner will be. What’s more likely?  Having a female President or a Republican President?   Based on the odds, we are very likely to have a female President in 2016.  In fact it’s more likely that we have a female President than a male President (51.5% vs 48.5%).  As far as the likely party, right now the Democrats have the edge 62.7% to 36.7% for the Republicans.  Of course both of these are driven by Clinton’s high odds.

The top women in the Odds are Clinton (#1), Warren (#6), Kirsten Gillibrand (#15), Susana Martinez (#23), and Condoleeza Rice (#25)

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

Views – 854