Updated Weekly Odds: Donald Trump Continues to Widen Lead over Rubio and Cruz. Kasich Showing Signs of Life

Hillary Clinton continued to have a big lead at 59.7%, up 0.3% from the prior week.  Her lead over Donald Trump however, has shrunk to the lowest level in the last 14 weeks.

Donald Trump continued his campaign as he splits loyalties on the right.  He got an endorsement from Sarah Palin while conservative National Review had an “Against Trump” issue with essays from many conservative thinkers.  Trump was up 2.5% to 15.4%.  Over the last six weeks he has more than doubled his odds, and the 15.4% is the highest at any time in this race for anyone other than Clinton.

Marco Rubio continues to run in third and dropped 0.8% to 8.3%.  He has now dropped for eight straight weeks, and he is at his lowest level since the end of October.

Over the last two weeks Bernie Sanders has made a move.  He was up again this week by 0.2% to 7.4%, his highest mark of the campaign.

Ted Cruz continues to suffer with all of the attacks from Trump.  Cruz was down 1.2% to 3.1%.  He has now been down four straight weeks and is at his lowest point since the end of November.

Jeb Bush and Chris Christie continued to be in sixth and seventh place with each dropping 0.2%.  Jeb Bush is now at 2.4% and Chris Christie at 0.9%.

The one second tier candidate that showed some life is John Kasich.  He was up 0.2% to 0.5%.  That was enough to lift him from tenth to eighth.  It is also his highest mark since the middle of December.

Here are the full odds:

January 23 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 904

Updated Weekly Odds: New Highs for Trump and Sanders; Big Drops for Clinton, Cruz, and Christie

There was a lot of movement after the last Republican debate and two weeks before the Iowa caucus.

Hillary Clinton saw a big drop from 66.6% to 59.4%.  That is the single biggest move of anyone any time during this campaign.  This is the lowest she has been since the end of October and prior to that had been up in 14 of the last 15 weeks.  She is still comfortably in first place however.

The biggest move up was by Donald Trump.  He is now in second place overall jumping over Marco Rubio.  He was up 4.6% to 13%.  His previous high was at 8.5% back in the middle of September.

Rubio dropped 0.2% to 9%.  This is his seventh straight drop and the lowest he has been since end of October.

Bernie Sanders saw a similar pop to Trump.  He was up from 2.8% to 7.2%.  This is his highest mark, with his previous high coming at 6% in October.

Ted Cruz saw the second biggest declining dropping from 5.1% to 4.3%. This was his third straight drop and his lowest mark since the middle of December.

Jeb Bush finally saw a slight increase after dropping for 5 straight weeks.  He was up 0.2% to 2.5%, his highest in nearly a month.

Chris Christie was the third candidate to see a big decline.  He dropped from 1.7% to 1.2%.  He has now declined for three straight weeks and is at his lowest point since the end of November.  Despite the drop, he remains in 7th place.

The man to keep an eye on is Michael Bloomberg.  Although his odds have not increased much, he has risen in the standings as others have fallen.  He is now in 8th place overall at 0.4%.

Here are the full standings:

January 16 2016 pres odds

 

 

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 862

Updated Weekly Odds: Clinton and Cruz Cool Down; Trump and Sanders Close Gap; Rubio Continues Downward Trend

Hillary Clinton snapped her streak of thirteen straight weeks at the top with a small 0.3% decline to 65.9%. She still leads her next closest competitor by over 55%!

Marco Rubio continues to be in second place but the question is for how long.  He drops for the fifth straight week, down 0.4% to 9.4%.  His lead over the third place candidate, Donald Trump, has shrunk from a high of 5.5% in November to the current 1.5%.

Trump has been doing his part to close the gap as well.  He was up 0.6% to 7.9%.  This was his third straight increase and the highest he has been since the middle of September.

The hottest candidate had been Ted Cruz.  Prior to this week he was up for fourteen straight weeks.  That came to an end as he dropped 0.1% to 5.3%.  He remains solidly in 4th place.

Bernie Sanders, who prior to this week had dropped for nine straight weeks turned it around this week with a 0.3% increase to 2.5%.  He passes Jeb Bush for 5th place.

Due to the drops from the second tier candidates, Michael Bloomberg, who has not announced he is running is now in 9th place at 0.3%.

Here are the full standings:

January 2 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 870

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