Updated Weekly Odds: Cruz and Kasich Drop Out; Trump at All Time High; Clinton Continues to Have Big Lead

The big news this week was Ted Cruz and John Kasich dropping out, giving the Republican nomination to Donald Trump.

Trump not only picked up the previous odds of Cruz (3.7%) and Kasich (1.3%), but also some (1.7%) from Hillary Clinton.  His odds improved from 21.1% to 28.2%, an all time high for him.  His previous high was 25.3% at the end of February.

Hillary Clinton dropped from 68.4% to 66.7%.  She still maintains over a 40% lead.

Clinton’s lead over Trump reflects the national polls where Clinton wins out in 5 of the most 6 recent polls (taken between 4/11 and 5/1) with an average gap of 6.5%.

Bernie Sanders, the only other remaining candidate, held steady at 2.7%.  Prior to that he had declined for three straight weeks.

There are three more “candidates” in the betting field:

Joe Biden improved from 1.1% to 1.3%

Paul Ryan dropped from 1% to 0.7%

Mitt Romney held steady at 0.4%

Here are the full odds

May 7 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 841

Updated Weekly Odds: Trump with Largest Gain; Clinton Keep Reaching New Highs; Cruz, Kasich, Sanders Continue Fall

Hillary Clinton continued to reach new highs.  She was up to 68.4% from last week’s 66.9%, which was her then all time high.

Despite that improvement, he lead over Donald Trump actually shrank from last week’s 48.6% to this week’s 47.3% as a result of Trump’s big Jump.  Trump moved from 18.4% to  21.1%.  This is the highest he has been in 5 weeks.

Ted Cruz had the biggest drop as he decreased from 5.6% to 3.7%.  The 3.7% is the lowest he has been in 5 weeks.

Bernie Sanders dropped from 3.5% to 2.7%.  This is the lowest he has been in 17 weeks.

John Kasich dropped 1% from 2.3% to 1.3%.  This is the lowest he has been in 9 weeks.

Here is the full field:

April 30 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 846

Updated Weekly Odds: Clinton Odds at a New High post NY; Trump Improves; Sanders and Cruz with Big Declines

Hillary Clinton’s odds continued to improve.  She reached a new high at 66.9%.  Previously her high was at 66.6% in January.  Just two months ago she was at only 49.8%.

Donald Trump also improved his odds post his NY victory.  He was up to 18.4% from 14.8%.  This is the highest he has been in the last 4 weeks.

Ted Cruz jumped over Bernie Sanders for third place despite dropping by 2.1% to 5.6%.  This is his lowest mark in three weeks.

The big loser on the week was Bernie Sanders who dropped from 7.7% to 3.5%.  He peaked two weeks ago at 9.5%.  The 3.5% is his lowest since March.

John Kasich also dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%.  He has now dropped for three straight weeks.  He is at his lowest point since the end of February (prior to Rubio dropping out).

Here are the full odds:

April 23 2016 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 894

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