Category Archives: Yang 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump and Biden continue hot streak as they distance themselves from the field; Sanders continues losing ground in third place; Beto’s attempt at a reboot appears to be unsuccessful

The trend of Trump and Biden reaching new highs is in its sixth week now.

Donald Trunp’s odds improved from last week’s high of 2.10X to 2.04X this week. His odds have now improved the last 13 weeks (over 90 days). They were are at 2.93X at that time. That is an improvement of over 40% over that time.

Joe Biden’s streak isn’t as long since it wasn’t known 13 weeks ago if he would even run. In half the time (last 6 weeks), he has improved from 10.7X to 5.57X, which is over a 90% improvement. The majority of thinking now is it’s Joe Biden’s nomination to lose.

7 out of the next 10 competitors saw a decrease in odds including the third place candidate, Bernie Sanders. He has now dropped for five straight weeks (basically the same time period as Biden has been up). Sanders dropped this week from 7.69X to 8.35X. He was at 6.74X when the streak started. This is his lowest in 12 weeks. The challenge for Sanders is beyond his base his unfavorability is one of the worst (41% fav 48% unfav), although that is still better than the President’s (38%/57%)

The coldest name has been Beto O’Rourke. He dropped this week from 24.4X to 27.6X. Beto has dropped for 9 straight weeks. He was at 8.9X and in 5th place then. He dropped this week to 8th place behind Andrew Yang. Beto tried to reboot his campaign this week with a CNN townhall but hat was very poorly watched.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds improve to best in 11 weeks on small increase; Beto makes it official, sucks up 2020 coverage from both sides; Biden continues to tease run; Yang jumps ahead of big names including Warren, Klobuchar, and Booker

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their recent streak of small but consistent improvements, this week moving from 2.86X to 2.85X. This is the third straight week of improvements. He was at 2.93X four weeks ago. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. The headlines this week centered around Congress’ vote to release the Mueller report and Trump’s first veto to the rebuke from Congress on the border wall state of emergency.

Beto O’Rourke finally made it official this week. The amount of coverage he received from all media whether political in nature or not, would suggest his candidacy will either be very successful (top 3 Democratic candidate) or a total flop (ala Jeb Bush being a top candidate and quickly crashing and burning in 2016). His odds improved from 10.1X to 9.2X. He stayed in 5th place overall.

Joe Biden is the last top candidate that has not announced his intentions of running. He continues to tease a run, and the direction his odds have moved the past four weeks indicate most believe he will run. He was up this week from 8.39X to 7.57X, allowing him to stay in fourth place. His odds were at 10.9X just one month ago.

Perhaps the hottest name not on everyone’s radar is Andrew Yang. The Democrat that is best known for his Universal Basic Income stance continues to get media coverage giving life to his unlikely candidacy. He jumped this week from 50.5X to 27.2X, moving from 13th place to 6th place. To give some perspective about the inroads he has made (at least from a betting perspective): He is currently ahead of big names like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker. He was first mentioned on this blog exactly one month ago when he jumped from 169X and 81st place to 127X and 63rd place.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds steady despite bad headlines; Biden’s family on board for a run, will be making decision soon; Beto continues to tease a run; Andrew Yang talks Freedom Dividend on FoxNews, odds nearly double

Donald Trump’s Odds held steady for the week despite some bad headlines including a summit with North Korea that he cut short and public testimony by his former attorney Michael Cohen. His odds barely budged improving from 2.93X to 2.91X. He remained in the tight range of 2.90X to 2.96X for the seventh week in a row.

Joe Biden says his family is on board with a potential run and he will be making a decision soon. His odds jumped from 10.4X to 9.2X which moved him up in the standings from 4th place to 3rd just slightly ahead of Bernie Sanders. This is the highest Biden has been in both odds and standings.

Beto O’Rourke continues to tease a Presidential run. His odds jumped from 12.8X to 9.5X, his best in 5 weeks. He remains in fifth place overall and has been as high as second place.

The biggest mover of the week was Andrew Yang. He nearly doubled his odds moving from 122.4X to 69.2X. That was enough to move him from 58th place to 17th place. The Democratic entrepreneur best known for his support for a Universal basic income (rebranded “the Freedom Dividend”) continues to make the rounds for publicity this week stopping by Fox News. Here’s a short profile from Axios of the 2020 candidate.

Here is a list of all the odds:

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