Iowa Poll of 500 voters was released today.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:

Mike Huckabee      13%
Chris Christie          11%
Rick Perry                9%
Jeb Bush                  7%
Rand Paul                7%
Paul Ryan                 6%
Rick Santorum          6%
Ted Cruz                  5%
Marco Rubio            5%
Scott Walker            4%
John Kasich              1%
John Huntsman          1%

Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list.  35% said they would vote for Romney.  What’s interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney.  On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:

Hillary Clinton                     66%
Elizabeth Warren                10%
Joe Biden                           8%
Andrew Cuomo                 4%
Martin O’Malley                 2%

Views – 800

There is a lot of debate about whether the indictment hurt or helped Rick Perry the last two weeks.  One thing is very clear: For those putting money on the elections, it hurt.  Rick Perry had the biggest drop among the top candidates moving from #8 to #15 with the probability dropping from 2.1% to 1.4%.  He peaked at 4th place on 8/2 when his probability was at 3.1%, more than double what it is now.

One of the beneficiaries seems to be fellow Texan Ted Cruz who jumps back into the top 10 at #9 from last week’s #11.  Cruz had consistently been in 10th place before being replaced by Romney back in early August.

In other moves in the top 10, Marco Rubio has now caught Jeb Bush for 2nd place.  They both shared the spot in June and July as well. Their individual probability is at 4.3%.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the big leader with a probability of 41.4%.  That number has been eroding recently, however, after having peaked at 44.4% on 8/2.

One person to keep an eye on is Martin O’Malley.  He is currently in 11th place (now ahead of more known names like Perry, Cuomo, and Jindal) and at only 1.5% probability.  His numbers have improved however each of the last three weeks.  Perhaps it’s purely a mathematical consequence of Clinton’s numbers dropping.

Views – 831

Quinnipac released a poll of NY state voters that showed Clinton and Cuomo well ahead of the top Republican candidates in the state.

Clinton leads:
60 – 29 percent over Jeb Bush (+31)
61 – 30 percent over Rand Paul (+29)
54 – 34 percent over Chris Christie (+20)

Cuomo leads:
53 – 30 percent over Bush (+23)
55 – 31 percent over Paul (+24)
47 – 37 percent over Christie (+10)

– Overall Clinton does a better job against the Republicans than Cuomo
– Overall Christie does the best amongt the Republicans which isn’t a surprise given his close proximity to NY

One bright spot for Christie is has has closed the gap since February where he was down by 27 to Clinton (picked up 7 points) and down by 16 points to Cuomo (picked up 6 points)

NY is heavily Democratic as evidenced by Obama’s 63-35 win over Romney in 2012 and is not expected to be in play in 2012.

Link to the poll

Views – 761