There have been some major moves since the election a few weeks back.

Hillary Clinton continues to lead the odd by a wide margin with a probability of 39.3%, a full 3% ahead of her closest opponent. This is her highest probability since August.

Jeb Bush has passed Marco Rubio and had widened his lead.  His probability is now at 6.4% vs. Rubio’s 4.5%.

Two other big movers for the Republicans are Scott Walker who is now in 10th place (and now included in the graphical trend) at 1.6% and Rob Portman moving into 16th place at 1.2%.

One the Democratic side Elizabeth Warren continues to be the top threat to Clinton.  She is in 6th place overall at 2.6%. She is followed by Biden in 7th, Martin O’Malley in 11th, Andrew Cuomo in 13th and Kirsten Gillibrand in 14th.

Here’s the full odds

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Yet another week with no movement in the top 10.  Hillary Clinton‘s lead continued to shrink but she is still more than 7 times more likely to win than any other individual:  Clinton’s probability is 37.9% vs. Marco Rubio‘s 4.9%.

A little bit more movement just outside the top 10 as Scott Walker and Martin O’Malley move up to 11th and 12th respectively replacing Ted Cruz and Tim Pawlenty.  It’s odd in that for the two to move up in that Walker is in the middle of fighting to hold on to his position and O’Malley’s own constituents don’t believe he should run in 2016

Other moves up were Ohio Senator Rob Portman (from 22 to 16) who will decide after the midterms whether to run and Mass. Governor Deval Patrick (from 27 to 20) who announced he is going back to the private sector.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

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Hillary Clinton continues to be the dominant leader at 38.1% but she has been drifting down.  She peaked o 8/2 with a 45.5% probability.

Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan each gained 0.1% of that 0.5% drop, but remained in their positions (3rd, 4th, and 8th)

Another 0.1% went to Mitt Romney, who has moved up each of the last three weeks, jumping into the top 10 from 11th place with a probability of 1.7%.  He jumped over Ted Cruz and Andrew Cuomo.

The last 0.1% went to Kirsten Gillibrand who has moved from not being on my board of 60 candidates in May to #15.  She has been generating a lot of buzz from different sources

The biggest drop was Cory Booker who moved from #36 to #42.  This is an odd drop as he has a very high likelihood of being re-elected to the Senate in November.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

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