This week’s odds had very little movement as for the first time in 11 weeks Jeb Bush did not see a significant gain.  Over that run, He has increased from 4.1% to 9.8%.

Hillary Clinton maintains her strong position although once again it saw a small dip to 38.9%.  Over the last 8 months she has ranged between 36.8% and 45.5%.

With so little change this week, Let’s look at how the top 10 candidates have trended over the last 8 months.  This is based on the slope of the line that represents their weekly odds that can be found here

Biggest Increase: Jeb Bush

Moderate Increases: Mitt Romney and Elizabeth Warren

Small Increase: Scott Walker

Small Decreases: Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Joe Biden, Rand Paul

Moderate Decrease: Hillary Clinton (still holds a big lead.  Drop in graph may not appear large since it’s on a different scale)

Biggest Decrease: Paul Ryan

Here’s the overall odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 968

Jeb Bush continued his meteoric rise in the odds, improving to 9.8% from 9.2% last week.  Bush was below 5% and behind Rubio just 2 months ago.

Hillary Clinton continues to dominate at 39.8%, although she is at her lowest point in 2 months.  According to the odds, she is still 4 times more likely of being elected than Jeb Bush.

Marco Rubio (4.2%), Chris Christie (3.5%) and Rand Paul (3.2%) round out the top 5.

Mitt Romney continues to improve and now has a 2.4% probability from just 1.9% two months prior. He is in 7th place.

On the Democratic side John Kerry has been slowly moving up from 24th place in the summer to 15th place this week at 1.2%.

Top 5 most improved the last 6 months:

– Jeb Bush +5.2% (4.6% to 9.8%)

-Mitt Romney +1.5% (0.9% to 2.4% and 29th place to 7th)

-Kirsten Gillibrand +1.2% (0.2% to 1.4%)

-Deval Patrick from 45th to 18th

-Susana Martinez from 30th to 17th

Top 5 decreases the last 6 months:

-Hillary Clinton -2.3% (from 42.1% to 39.8%)

-Paul Ryan -2.1% (from 3.9% to 1.7%)

-John Huntsman -0.8% (from 1.4% to 0.6%)

-Rick Perry (-0.6%) from 1.4% to 0.8% and 10th place to 28th place)

– Bobby Jindal from 9th place to 16th place

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1133

Hillary Clinton continues to dominate the odds at 40.2%.  She has been between 40% and 40.5% the last 5 weeks.

The big mover has been Jeb Bush.  He has improved for 8 straight weeks and took over the #2 overall spot from Marco Rubio on 11/8.  This week he improved to 9.2% from last week’s 8.5%.  Two months ago he was at just 4.1%.  He now has twice the odds as any of the other candidates behind him.  Rubio is still the closest competitor at 4.1%.

Aside from Bush, there were very little changes in odds.

With such a slow week, I decided to sum the odds up and see what they say about the likelihood of have a male vs. female, and Republican vs. Democrat.

Are we likely to have the first female president? The odds are currently at 51% male 49% female.  The top 3 female candidates are all Democrats: Clinton,  Elizabeth Warren who is in 6th overall at 2.4%, and Kirsten Gillibrand 13th overall at 1.3%.  The next two are Republican long shots with Susana Martinez and Condoleeza Rice at 1%.

How about Republicans vs. Democrats?  Currently, thanks to Clinton, the Democrats lead 58% to 42%.  Republican do have 4 of the top 5 candidates, but that is more of a function of there not being as strong a front-runner probability wise as the Democrats.

When combining gender and party, we find that we are most likely to have a Democrat who is female as the next president (46%) followed by a male Republican (39%), a male Democrat (12%) and a female Republican (3%)

Here are the overall odds for this week:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1013