Hillary Clinton continues to be the favorite to win the Presidency at 41.8%, her highest since August 2014.  Her lead over Jeb Bush has shrunk to its lowest level since late April.  Bush is now at 11.4%, 30.4% behind Clinton.

The candidate making the biggest move this past week was Scott Walker.  He improved from 4.3% to 4.6%.  That is the highest he has ever been.  He is within striking distance of Rubio’s 5.4% for 3rd overall. Walker is expected to announce whether he is running in June.

Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson have done well since announcing and have broken into the top 15.

Huckabee is now in 14th up from 22nd place at the beginning of April.

Carson is in 15th place, up from 22nd place since the start of the month.

Bernie Sanders drops to 27th overall after her rose for three straight weeks after his announcement.  He was in 22nd place last week.

Here are the full odds with the candidates that have announced they are running in green:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 1028

This week’s top 10 came in the same as last week’s with Hillary Clinton leading at 41.8%.  Her closest Democratic competitor is Elizabeth Warren.  Warren has stated she is not running and is in 6th overall at 2%.

The top Republican is Jeb Bush at 11.2%.  He has nearly twice the likelihood as his closest competitor Marco Rubio at 5.4%.  Scott Walker is 4th place overall at 4.3%.

How have the probabilities changed over the last year?

Clinton has not moved much over the last year.  She has been in first place every week and has actually improved her probability slightly from 39.9% to 41.8%.

Marco Rubio was the second place candidate last May at 4.7%.  Although he has dropped to 3rd place, his probability has increased.

Bush was in 4th place last May at 3.5% and has improved dramatically coming in this week at 11.2%.

Who are the other big movers?

Moves up:

-Scott Walker has moved from 10th to 4th overall

-John Kasich from 22nd to 9th

– Mike Huckabee from 22nd to 15th

– Jim Webb from 31st to 17th

Moves down:

-Chris Christie from tied for 2nd to 7th

– Paul Ryan from 4th to to 21st

-Bobby Jindal from 9th to 14th

-Mark Warner from 10th to 24th

-Rick Perry from 10th to 33rd

– Tim Pawlenty and Scott Brown from 10th to no odds

Here is a full list of odds.  I have highlighted the candidates who have declared (green) and those who have announced they will not run (red)

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

 

Views – 1086

Hillary Clinton continued to have a comfortable lead at 41.7%, flat to last week.

Jeb Bush continues to be in second but reversed a four week streak of declines improving from 11.0% to 11.2%. He increases his lead over Marco Rubio to 5.8%.

Many of the top candidates from a year ago who have not declared are now seeing big declines:

-Chris Christie who was the second leading candidate last May is now in 7th place and is down to 1.6% this week.

-Bobby Jindal got as high as 9th place but has failed to gain any traction and is now down to 18th place this week at 0.8%.

-Andrew Cuomo got as high as 9th place and was in 12th place just 4 weeks ago.  He comes in this week at 31st place at just 0.7%.

On the other hand, candidates that were considered long shots and have thrown their name in have  moved up dramatically:

-Ben Carson announced this week and he jumped from 22nd place to 17th place.  He was as low as 45th place last summer.

– Bernie Sanders who announced the prior week and as a result debuted at 42nd place improved to 27th place this week.

– John Kasich seems to be the next person to declare.  He has now moved up into 9th place after being in 34th place just three weeks ago.

Here are is the full list of this week’s odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 1048