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Updated Odds: Clinton, Bush with Big Gains; Rubio Slips; Sanders in Top 5; Trump, Jindal Rise; Christie, Webb Enter Race

Hillary Clinton had a good week as she rose 0.7% to 42.6%, the highest she has been since August 2014.

He closest competitor Jeb Bush also had a good week improving by 0.5% to 12.5%.  That is the highest Bush has been.  Bush’s rise seemed to come at the expense of Marco Rubio who remains in 3rd but is down from 6.3% to 5.9%.

Bernie Sanders continues his hot streak, as he improves by 0.8% to 2.7%.  This was enough for him to get into the top 5, leap frogging Rand Paul. (Sanders added to graph of top 10 see link below)

Donald Trump continued to make headlines and move up polls which helped him move from 18th place to 14th place.

Bobby Jindal also had a good week moving from 25th place to 21st place. Jindal had been sliding recently.  This is the highest he has been since end of May.

There were two new entries in the race.  Chris Christie finally declared.  That did not move him in the standings, as he remained in 10th place.  Christie was once the front runner for the Republican nomination before “Bridgegate” hit.   He was as high as 5th overall in February.

Jim Webb declared and actually dropped in the standings as he was jumped over by Trump.  Webb is in 17th place overall.  Webb has been between 14th and 20th since March.

Here is the full list

July 4 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Updated Weekly Odds: Bush, Rubio, and Sanders Continue Hot Streak; Jindal Enters Race; Clinton Steady

Hillary Clinton extended her streak of being between 41% and 42% probability of winning to 11 weeks.  She is more than three times more likely to win the presidency than her next competitor.

Jeb Bush has been hot the last two weeks moving from 10.8% to 11.9%.  Although he has shrunk the gap with Clinton to 30%, it has been at the expense of candidates seen less and less likely to run.

After dropping slightly last week as a result of Bush’s announcement, Marco Rubio resumed his hot streak moving from 6.1% to 6.3%.  His odds have increased nearly 50% since April.

The hottest candidate continues to be Bernie Sanders. Since May 30th, he has moved from 27th place to this week’s current 6th place. To get there he leapfrogged Elizabeth Warren to become the primary challenger to Clinton on the Democratic side.

It was Bobby Jindal’s turn to enter the race this week.  The announcement did not move his odds at all.  Just like last week, he is at 0.6% and in 25th place.  Jindal was once considered one of the top candidates, peaking at 9th place in July of 2014.

Here is a list of all the candidates:

June 27 2015 pres trend

 

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

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Updated Odds: Bush and Trump Announcements Lead to Big Gains. Sanders Continues Hot Streak.

Hillary Clinton continues to be steady at the top at 42%.  She has been between 41% and 42% since middle of April.

Jeb Bush officially enters the races and has the biggest move up from 10.8% to 11.3%.   This just gets him back to where he was 4 weeks ago as he’s been losing ground to Marco Rubio the last few weeks.

Bush’s improvement comes at the expense of Scott Walker and Rand Paul who each drop 0.2% to 4.2% and 2.3%.  They both remain in 4th and 5th place respectively.

Bernie Sanders continues his hot streak coming in at 1.6% and jumping over Joe Biden to 3rd place for the Democrats and 7th place overall.  He is within striking distance of Elizabeth Warren who has indicated she is not running.

The other big move this week was Donald Trump entering the race.  The announcement doubled his odds from 0.4% to 0.8% moving him from 50th place all the way up to 18th place. Surprisingly he is well ahead of veteran politicians who have declared including Santorum, Perry, Graham, Chafee, Pataki.   It remains to be seen if this betting odds hype translates into the polls and later to votes.

The numbers also seem to indicate which candidates are likely to be the first to drop out.  George Pataki has not gone higher than 43rd since entering the race close to a month ago.  Lincoln Chafee started in 27th place and has dropped down to 47th place two weeks later.

Here’s the full list of odds June 20 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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