For the first time in seven weeks, Hillary Clinton did not increase her odds.  The increase in odds the past few weeks was most likely driven by the likelihood of new candidates entering decreasing rather than Clinton gaining traction.  She is by far the top candidate at 47.5%.

The second place candidate remains Jeb Bush although with candidates from both sides taking jabs at him, Bush declined by 0.9% to 13.1%.  That is his lowest in the last three weeks. Bush remains 10% ahead of the next closest Republican competitor.

The biggest mover on the week and up to 3rd place is Sanders.  He was up 0.5% to 3.6%.  He jumps over Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.  In just the span of 4 months, Sanders has gone from an unlikely candidate outside the top 40 to being Clinton’s primary challenger and the third best chance overall.

Rubio drops to 4th overall but remains flat at 3.4%.  He is looking in his rear-view mirror at fast approaching Donald Trump.  Trump continues to amaze improving from 2.9% to 3.3%.   Trump’s rise has been even faster that Sanders.  In the last 9 weeks he has gone from non candidate to 5th place overall.

To get to 5th place, Trump jumped over one of the biggest losers of the week, Scott Walker.  Walker drops from 3.4% to 3.1% and 4th place to 6th place.  This is his lowest point as far as odds since February.

Talk of Joe Biden running gains momentum for a second straight week.  He remains in 7th place overall but is up by 0.3% to 2.9%.  He was at 1.6% two weeks ago.

Others with momentum include John Kasich who has improved for 5 straight weeks and is now in 8th place and Carly Fiorina who is up to 13th place from 24th place prior to the debate.

Here is the overall leaderboard:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 962

The biggest moves for the week were the result of the first Republican Debate.

Jeb Bush moved very little post debate as he seems to have done well enough not to sink.  He is in 2nd place overall at 14% and well ahead of hist closest competition in Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.

Although Rubio drew rave reviews from some, he actually dropped from 4.0% to 3.4%.  He remains in third overall slightly ahead of Walker.

Walker was another top candidate who did not make an impression one way or another.  He remained in 4th overall dropping slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%.

The hottest name continued to be Donald Trump.  Despite his controversial answers at the debate (may run as an independent, comments about women, etc.) and his comments afterwards, Trump managed once again to improve for the 5th straight week.  Over those 5 weeks he has improved from 0.8% to 2.9% and 18th overall to this week’s 6th place (same as last week).

One winner seems to have been John Kasich who improved from  1.2% to 1.5% which kept him in 9th place overall.

The unquestionable winner of the week however, was Carly Fiorina who’s debate performance rocketed her from 24th place overall to 14th place ahead of prime time debater Ben Carson and fellow “Happy Hour” Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s continue to improve moving from 46.6% to another all time high of 47.5%.  She has gained for six straight weeks as it has become clear that many of the possible Democratic competitors will not challenge her.

One potential challenger who rose dramatically this week was Joe Biden who moved from 1.6% to 2.6%.  He is Clinton’s second leading challenger as far as the odds behind Bernie Sanders who has been fairly stead in the 3.1%-3.2% the last 5 weeks.

Here are the full standings for the week:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1029

For the second week in a row, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush have reached all time highs.

Hillary Clinton increased from 44.9% to 46.6%.  She is nearly 33% ahead of Jeb Bush for the overall lead and and more than 43% ahead of her closest Democratic competitor.

Bush improved from 13.0% to 13.7%.  At the same time Marco Rubio dropped from 4.9% to 4.0%.  Over the last three weeks, these top two Republican candidates have moved in the opposite direction. As a result, Bush’s lead over Rubio has expanded from 6.9% to 9.8%.

Scott Walker and Bernie Sanders’s odds did not change and remained in 4th and 5th place at 3.5% and 3.1% respectively.

Donald Trump continued his hot streak.  He moved up from 8th place to 6th place overall at 2.2% jumping over Rand Paul and Joe Biden.

John Kasich seems to be picking up some momentum jumping from 12th place last week to 9th place this week.

Reality seems to have finally hit those betting on Elizabeth Warren.  She has constantly said she is not running but the odds, until this week, had consistently had her in the top 10. This week, Warren dropped from 9th to 12th.

Here are the total standings before the first Republican debate:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1166