Category Archives: Uncategorized

Updated Odds: Rubio and Cruz’s Momentum continues; Bush, Fiorina Continue Drop; Trump, Christie Stops Slide

Hillary Clinton continued with her commanding lead, dropping just 0.1% to 60.4%, the second highest week of any candidate.

Her closest rival is Marco Rubio, who has been the hottest candidate the last two months. He improves from 10.9% to 11.2%.  Just 8 weeks ago he was in 6th place at 3.8%.

Clinton’s closest Democratic rival continues to be Bernie Sanders.  He appears to have peaked three weeks ago at 6.0% and has dropped to 4.8% this week. He remains in 4th place overall.

After a two week slide, Donald Trump appears to have stabilized at 5.8%.  He has been as high as 7.6% four weeks ago and 8.5% nine weeks ago.

Two Republicans continue to slide:

Jeb Bush drops 0.4% to 3.4%.  He was at 7.0% two weeks ago and 12.5% eight weeks ago. Over that time he has dropped from second to fifth.

Carly Fiorina has dropped for four straight weeks from 2.9% to just 0.9%.  That has meant a drop from 7th place to 9th place.

Ben Carson’s momentum may be coming to an end.  He drops from 2.5% to 2.3%. That is still good enough for 6th place.

One of the hottest candidates is Ted Cruz.  He was up 0.4% to 1.9%.  He has been up for seven straight weeks.  Over that same span he has moved from 13th place to 7th.

One candidate that has been sliding and hopes to have turned it around is Chris Christie.  He moves from 10th place to 8th place.  He was up for the first time in four weeks from 0.9% to 1.1%.

Here is the full list:

November 7 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1120

Updated Odds after Third Republican Debate: Clinton, Rubio Strengthen Leads; Bush and Fiorina Fall; Carson and Cruz up

Hillary Clinton had another great week.  Her odds improved from 56.2% to 60.5%.  That is the highest any candidate has been.  She is up over 20% in the last 3 weeks.

The other hot candidate has been Marco Rubio.  Rubio continues to hold the 2nd spot for the second straight week at 10.3% up from 7.9%.  This is the highest probability he has ever had and the biggest lead he has had in the Republican race.

Bush, last week’s 3rd place finisher, continued to decline.  He drops from 3rd place to 5th place as he gets passed by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.  This week’s decline for Bush was particularly bad as his odds nearly got cut in half from 7.0% to 3.8%.  This is the 6th straight decline for Bush.  He was at 12.6% just 6 weeks ago.

Despite a decrease in odds, Donald Trump was able to jump up to 3rd place overall.   His odds dropped from 6.8% to 5.7%.  Trump has been struggling lately.  He is down the last two weeks and has not gained any ground since the end of August.

Bernie Sanders also had a tough week dropping from 6% to 5%.  That was still good enough to allow him to move to 4th place overall passing Bush.

Aside from Rubio, the other winners of the debate appear to be Ben Carson and Ted Cruz.

Ben Carson was up 0.6% to 2.5%, his all time high.  He remains in 6th place overall.

Ted Cruz was up 0.5% to 1.6%.  That was enough to move him from 9th place to 7th place.  He was in 12th place as recently as 2 weeks ago.

Aside from Bush, the other loser was Carly Fiorina who dropped from 1.7% to 1.1% moving her to 8th place.

Here are the full standings:

October 31 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1098

Updated Odds: Biden not Running; Clinton Jumps to her Largest Lead; Rubio Overtakes Bush

The biggest news of the week was Joe Biden announcing he would not be running.  Biden who was as high as 3rd two weeks ago and 5th last week dropped out of the odds.

Hillary Clinton combined Biden’s dropout with her own momentum to jump to 56.2%, by far her highest point of the campaign. (She was at 43.4 the previous week and the previous high was in August at 47.5%)

The other big mover was Marco Rubio who gained 0.5% and jumped into 2nd place ahead of Jeb Bush for 2nd overall. Rubio’s jump into second was more a function of Jeb Bush continuing to fall.

Bush dropped by 1.9% to 7.0%.  He has now dropped for 5 straight weeks and is not in second place for the first time since November 2014, when Rubio was in 2nd place.

Donald Trump dropped 0.7% to 6.8%.  That drops him from 3rd place to 4th place as he was jumped by Rubio.

Bernie Sanders continues to be strong up 0.1% to 6.0% and in 5th place overall.

Carly Fiorina dropped by 0.9% to 1.7%.  That was enough to allow Ben Carson to overtake her for 6th place.

Ted Cruz was able to move from 12th place to 9th place.

Here’s he full odds:

October 24 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1114