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Updated Odds: Clinton Continues Hot Streak; Cruz Closing Gap on Rubio; Second Tier Candidates Struggle

Although there was no changes in the positioning of the top 10 candidates, the odds themselves changed.

Hillary Clinton continued to expand her enormous lead from 64.5% to 65.1%. That is the 12th straight week of increase starting at just 39.2% back in the beginning of October.

Marco Rubio continues to be in second but had a big drop from 11.7% to 10.7%.  He has dropped for three straight weeks when he peaked at 12.2%.

Rubio’s drop was captured entirely by Ted Cruz, who continues in 4th place but gains 1.3% to 4.9%.  He remains the hottest candidate in the field having been up for 13 straight weeks from a just 0.8% in the middle of September.

Donald Trump continues to run third at 7.3% up 0.2% from the prior week.  He has been fairly steady in the 7% range the last 4 weeks.

Jeb Bush resumed his decline to 2.5% from 2.9%.  That is the lowest he has been.

Bernie Sanders remains Clinton’s top competition for the Democrats, but drops once again to 2.3% from 2.5%.  He has dropped eight straight weeks since peaking at 6.0%.

Chris Christie seems to be the only other viable candidate (probably because of his polling in NH).  He is in 7th place and steady at 1.8%.

The rest of the top 10 seems to be on life support:

Carson drops 0.2% to 0.4% and had dropped for 7 straight weeks.

John Kasich drops 0.1% to 0.3% and has dropped 11 straight weeks.

Carly Fiorina drops 0.1% to 0.3% and has dropped 9 straight weeks.

Here are the full odds:

December 19 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1172

Updated Odds: Clinton Expands Lead, Cruz Continues Hot Streak while Carson and Sanders Continue Free Fall; Bush, Christie Bottom?

Hillary Clinton extended her lead increasing her odds to 64.5% from 63.2%.  She has now improved the last eleven weeks starting at 38.2%.

Marco Rubio continues to be in second place although he dropped 0.4% to 11.7%.  That is his second straight drop and the lowest he has been in about a month.

Donald Trump remained in 3rd place flat at 7.1%. Trump’s peak was at 8.5% in the middle of September.

Ted Cruz continued to be the hottest candidate improving 0.4% to 3.5%.  This was enough to jump him to 4th place overall.  He has now been up for twelve straight weeks back when he was at 0.8% and in 13th place.

Jeb Bush may have finally hit bottom.  He was up for the first time in 15 weeks.  He was up 0.1% to 2.9%.  He moves into 5th place.

Another person to keep an eye on is Chris Christie.  He was up 0.3% to 1.8%.  This is the second straight week he has been up and the highest he has been since April.

The biggest drop was Bernie Sanders who moved from 4th place to 6th place. He dropped 0.7% from 3.2% to 2.5%.  Sanders has now dropped for seven straight weeks from 6.0%.

Ben Carson saw another big drop from 1.1% to 0.6%.  He remains in 8th place but has now dropped the last 6 weeks.

Here are the full standings:

December 12 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1115

Updated Odds: Clinton Continues Steady Rise; Cruz and Trump Continue Hot Streaks. Christie Showing Signs of Life

Hillary Clinton continue to improve her odds, increasing from 62.7% to 63.2%.  She has now been up for 10 straight weeks and has more than a 50% lead over the next competitor.

Marco Rubio continues to be in second place but had a small drop from 12.2% to 12.1%.   This was his first drop in 11 weeks.

Donald Trump came in third.  He is up for the 5th straight week from 7.0% to 7.1%. He is still off his high of 8.5 achieved middle of September.

Bernie Sanders continued to decline but stayed in 4th place.  He dropped from 3.4% to 3.2% and has now dropped the last 6 weeks.

Ted Cruz continues to be the hottest candidate as he was up 0.2% to 3.2%.  He has now been up for 11 straight weeks, the longest current streak of any candidate from just 0.8% in the middle of September.

Chris Christie saw a significant move up from 1.1% to 1.4%.  He had been somewhat stagnant at 1.1% for the last 4 weeks.  He was able to jump over Ben Carson into 7th place.

Ben Carson continues to drop moving to 8th place at 1.1% from last week’s 1.5%.  He has now dropped the last 5 weeks from a high of 2.5%.

Here is the rest of the field:

December 5 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1155