Hillary Clinton continued to lead, although her odds plummeted from 59.7% to 49.8%.  Most of the drop was gained by  Donald Trump.   This is the lowest Clinton has been since October and the smallest lead she has had the entire race.

With big wins in South Carolina and Nevada, Donald Trump improves from 13.6% to 25.3%.  This is by far the highest any Republican candidate has been.

Marco Rubio also improved from 9.8% to 11.9% as he has become the clear alternative to Trump.  He has improved the last two weeks, but is still not close to his high of 19.7% three weeks ago.

Bernie Sanders continues in fourth at 6.4% down from 7.5%.  This is the lowest he has been in the last three weeks.

Ted Cruz drops from 5th place to seventh place falling behind to undeclared candidates in Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden. He drops from 3.0% to 1.2%.  This is his lowest point in 18 weeks.

John Kasich improved slightly from 0.9% to 1.1%.

Jeb Bush ended his campaign.  He was in 7th place last week and was the early Republican favorite peaking at 14% in August of 2015.

Here are the full odds:

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Even with Nevada polls showing a tossup in a state thought to have been a Hillary Clinton lock, the odds improved for Clinton from 58.8% to 59.7%.  That is her second straight improvement and the highest she has been in a month.

Donald Trump was steady in second, down slightly from 14.0% to 13.8% as the one day Pope controversy seems to have had no impact.

Marco Rubio was the biggest mover of the week up to 3rd place at 9.8%.  This gain came largely at the expense of Jeb Bush.

Bush was down from 3.7% to 1.7%, dropping him from 5th to 7th place as he falls behind both Ted Cruz and Michael Bloomberg.

Ted Cruz continues to be the most interesting as his results in the polls are much higher than the odds he gets.   He drops 0.6% to 3.0%.

Bernie Sanders comes in 4th place at 7.5%.  He has been in the 6%-8% range for the last six weeks.

Michael Bloomberg came in 6th place.  He has been in the top 7 the last four weeks as he considers the possibility of running.

Here are the full odds:

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The biggest moves in the New Hampshire Primary were by Marco Rubio and Donald Trump.

Marco Rubio was coming in on a high post Iowa.  Having finished 3rd and seen as the mainstream candidate.  In one week his odds rose from 8.2% to 19.7% and he was in second place.  That all came crashing down this week as he dropped all the way down to 6.7% as he finished 5th behind other mainstream candidates likes Kasich and Bush.  He drops from having the highest Republican odds to fourth overall.  The 6.7% is his lowest since end of September.

Donald Trump had the mirror image.  After dropping last week from 16.3% to 6.9%, he jump back to 14% and claims back his position as the odds on favorite for the Republican nomination.

The two other big movers were Jeb Bush and John Kasich.

Bush jumped from 1.4% to 3.7% and fifth place overall. He is at his highest odds since the end of October.

By finishing second, Kasich breathed some life into his campaign. He jumped from 0.4% to 1.3% which allowed him to jump non-candidates Joe Biden and Mitt Romney for 8th place.  This is the highest he has been since mid October.

Ted Cruz’s third place finish increased his odds slightly from 3.4% to 3.6% but that wasn’t enough to stop Bush from jumping over him.

As a result of the primary Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie dropped out.

On the Democratic side, Sanders’ big win didn’t result in a big  movement in the odds.  Hillary Clinton continued to have a big lead.  She improved 1% to 58.8%. Bernie Sanders also improved 1% to 7.7%.  One can argue Bernie Sanders move is more impressive since it’s off a 6.7% base.  He is a the highest percentage he has been in the entire race.

Michael Bloomberg continued to gain momentum.  He jumped 1% to 2.3%. That is the highest he has been.  His seventh place standing is higher than Kasich.

Here are the full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1081