With the likelihood of a Clinton vs. Trump election reaching near certainty, I will start forecasting the elections based on poll results.

This initial forecast is based on a combination of the results of the last 5 elections and available polls and forecast.

The current forecast has Clinton in the lead by a wide margin (314 to 224), although admittedly most of the Clinton vs. Trump polling was taken prior to Trump becoming the presumptive nominee.

Recent polling has helped Trump make up ground.  For example he made up 9 points recently due to polls in Florida that changed the forecast to Lean D vs. the prior Likely D, and polls in OH that shifted the forecast from Lean D to Tossup.

The forecast has 164 either solid or likely for Trump and 217 either solid or likely for Clinton.  A trump victory hinges on winning 67% of the 157 electoral votes that are truly up in the air. The biggest of these are FL (29), PA (20), and OH (18).

Here is the current state by state forecast:

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Click here for list of changes from prior forecasts

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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The betting odds have unexpectedly decline for the two top candidates this week, perhaps reflecting the general unhappiness with the two likely candidates.

Hillary Clinton continued to have a big lead, but dropped to 65.6% from 66.7%.  That is her second straight drop and the lowest she has been in four weeks.

One week after winning the Republican nomination, Donald Trump’s odds dropped slightly from last week’s high of 28.2% to 27.1%.  That is still the second highest he has been at.

Bernie Sanders came in at 4.1% from 2.7% after his West Virginia win.  This is the highest he has been in four weeks.

The oddest move in the odds came from Joe Biden.  His odds bumped up from 1.3% to 2.3%.  This is the highest he has been since announcing he will not run in October.  This was based on 18 different oddsmakers.

Here is the full list of candidates:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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The big news this week was Ted Cruz and John Kasich dropping out, giving the Republican nomination to Donald Trump.

Trump not only picked up the previous odds of Cruz (3.7%) and Kasich (1.3%), but also some (1.7%) from Hillary Clinton.  His odds improved from 21.1% to 28.2%, an all time high for him.  His previous high was 25.3% at the end of February.

Hillary Clinton dropped from 68.4% to 66.7%.  She still maintains over a 40% lead.

Clinton’s lead over Trump reflects the national polls where Clinton wins out in 5 of the most 6 recent polls (taken between 4/11 and 5/1) with an average gap of 6.5%.

Bernie Sanders, the only other remaining candidate, held steady at 2.7%.  Prior to that he had declined for three straight weeks.

There are three more “candidates” in the betting field:

Joe Biden improved from 1.1% to 1.3%

Paul Ryan dropped from 1% to 0.7%

Mitt Romney held steady at 0.4%

Here are the full odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1037