Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump in the most recent forecast 306 to 232 although Trump continues to shrink that lead.

In under three weeks, Trump has shrunk Clinton’s lead from 108 electoral votes to 74.

Two state forecasts changed in the last few days:

• VA poll that showed a tie which lead the forecast to move the state into tossup from lean D.
• Two different NC polls showed Trump +4 after previous polls showed Clinton in the lead.  This led to the classification of the state as a tossup from lean D.

Other polls released confirmed the current forecasts:

• Two CA polls one showed Clinton +14 and one Clinton +10 confirmed CA as solid D
• NJ Poll showed Clinton +11 confirmed the state as solid D

Here is the state by state forecast:

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Click here for list of changes from prior forecasts

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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There was very little movement in the last week as far as the current election forecast.

Trump made up one point in the forecast and Clinton’s lead is now down to 313 to 225

Most polls this past week confirmed the current forecasts:

• AZ leaning to Trump
• OH is a tossup
• Fl is leaning to Clinton (2 polls confirmed this)
• NJ is solid to Clinton

The only movement was NH moving to tossup status with a NH poll putting Clinton in front by +2.

Here is the current state by state forecast:

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Click here for list of changes from prior forecasts

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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Hillary Clinton continued to be the overwhelming favorite at 64.7%, down from 65.6% from the prior week and a high of 68.4% four weeks ago.

Donald Trump was up from 27.1% to 28.2%, which ties him with his all time high achieved three weeks ago.

Clinton’s lead over Trump now at 36.5% down from 38.5% last week.  This is the smallest her lead over Trump has been since the middle of March.

Bernie Sanders dropped to 3.7% from 4.1%.  He reached a high of 9.5% the second week of April and has since dropped in five of the last six weeks.

Here is a graph of the three remaining candidates as well as the full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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