Predictit.org is a  financial market for political predictions.

Some of the financial predictions include who will the Presidency, and which party will win the House and Senate.

By looking at these markets, we can draw conclusions on different probabilities.

As of today, the most likely outcome is a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House (36.1% probability).

Two other less likely but possible scenarios are a Democratic President with a Republican House and Senate (20.3%) and a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate (17.4%).

The probability of a divided government (where neither party has control of all three) is 83.1%

The Republicans have a higher probability (9.8%) than the Democrats (7.1%) of sweeping all three thanks to their fairly strongly hold on the House.

Here is a look at the probabilities:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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At the surface, there was very little change in the overall forecast in this update as Clinton continues to lead big at 300 vs. Trump’s 238.

What is interesting however is the first polls post Johnson’s nomination for the Libertarian party.

In a Poll taken in Utah, Trump has a +7 lead head to head against Clinton, but that leads shrinks to +3 once Johnson is included.  Johnson takes a significant 16 points.  That moves the state to a likely R in the forecast from a solid R.

The opposite happened in Connecticut where head to head Clinton leads Trump by 7.  That shrinks once Johnson and Stein are included to +5.  Johnson and Stein combine for 9 points.

The two moves above cancel each other mathematically to keep the overall forecast the same.

Other polls merely confirmed the current status of states:

• 3 more CA polls confirm state as solid D (Clinton +26, +19, +15)
• FL poll confirms state as lean D (Clinton +3)
• NJ poll confirms state as likely D (Clinton +15)

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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After four straight weeks of drops, Hillary Clinton rebounded, improving from 59.2% to 61.5%.

This came at the expense of Donald Trump who dropped from 32.9% to 29.6%.  This is still the second highest Trump has been.  He had been up six of the last eight weeks.

Bernie Sanders stays alive a few days before the crucial primaries.  His odds increased to 5.1% from 4.4%.  This is the highest he has been since mid April.  Polls in CA have been narrowing but Clinton still leads.

For an updated state by state forecast of the election click here

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 881