This post is to update the odds from last week’s post based on the market at PredictIt.org.

In the past week:

• The probability of the Democrats winning the presidency increased from 67.5% to 70.5%
• The probability of the House remaining under Republican control decreased from 83.5% to 79%.
• The probability of the Republican maintaining control of the Senate improved from 36% to 38%

What does this mean to the probability of which party controls the government.  The most likely outcome remains  a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House  at 34.5%  although that dropped from 36.1%.

The probability of a Democratic President with a Republican House and Senate is the second most likely at 21.2%.  That is up from 20.3% last week.

The third most likely outcome is a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate.  That likelihood is now only 14.4% down from 17.4% last week.

The probability of a divided government (where neither party has control of all three) is 82.0% down from 83.1%.

Both parties have a very small chance of sweeping all three with the Democrats now ahead of the Republicans at 9.2% to 8.9%.

Here is a look at the probabilities:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 789

With the primaries over, the state polls have been few and far between.

The biggest change to the forecast came as a result of a Florida Poll showing Trump +1.  Previous polls had Clinton +1 and +3.  This was enough to move the state from lean D to a tossup.

The other poll causing a small change is the first CT poll showing Clinton +5.  That moves the state from solid D to likely D.

This moves the forecast from 301-237 Clinton down to 293-245 Clinton.  Trump has cut Clinton’s lead at the start of May (108) by more than half (currently at 48)

There were two other polls:

• PA poll with Clinton +1 keeps it lean D
• WI poll with Clinton +9 keeps it likely D

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 794

There have been 4 national polls with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson in both May and so far in June.

When we average those polls we see:

• Clinton improving from 40 in May to 42 in June
• Trump decreasing from 39 in May to 36 in June
• Johnson increasing from 7 in May to 10 in June

On average, Clinton moved from a +1 to a +5.5 so far in June over Trump.

Perhaps this shouldn’t be a surprise as May was the month Trump clinched the nomination, while June is the month where Clinton and Johnson clinched it.

It will be interesting to see what happens the second half of June which will reflect the tragedy in Orlando.

Here’s the results by poll:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 808