Polls from some important swing states have been released recently, two of which have influenced the forecast:

On 6/16 a VA poll showed Clinton +3 over Trump.   Combining that with a previous Clinton +4 poll pushed the state from the prior tossup to a lean D.

On 6/21  a FL poll showed Clinton +6. While 6 is a large spread that is normally classified as Likely D, combining that poll with the previous Trump +1 and Clinton +3 moved the state from a tossup to Lean D.

These two changes helped widen Clinton’s lead from 48 (293-245) to 70 (304-234).

Other polls released included:

• 6/20 UT poll Trump +9 confirms likely R
• 6/21 PA poll Clinton +3 confirms lean D
• 6/21 OH Poll Clinton +2 confirms tossup

Here’s a trend of the forecast

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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On the Republican side, the same two remained odds on favorites: Jeff Sessions (27.2%) and Newt Gingrich (17.3%).

Joni Ernst remained the far off third place candidate at 7.0%.

The surprise entry was John Kasich at 6.8% (tied with Chris Christie for 4th).  According to this commentary, he’d be a good candidate as he’d fit the “not crazy” profile and help with a must get state in Ohio.

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Hillary Clinton continued to increase her lead as she improved by 0.1% to 67.0%. These are her highest odds and gap versus Trump in 7 weeks.

Donald Trump had his third bad week in a row dropping from 26.4% to 25.7% as some of his Orlando massacre comments as well yet another movement, this time by RNC delegates, to find an alternative, may have hurt.

It’s very interesting that both Clinton and Trump have their party’s nomination mathematically wrapped up, yet the betting odds of their alternatives still show signs of life:

• For the Democrats Bernie Sanders has not thrown in the towel yet and his odds declined by only 0.4% to 2.9%.  Joe Biden continues to show up at 2.2%, down from last week’s 2.3%.  He’s seen as the mainstream alternative should Clinton’s email scandal blow up.
• On the Republican side Paul Ryan gained a little bit of ground to 0.8% from 0.6% while Romney dropped from 0.5% to 0.4%.  What’s interesting is the lack of Ted Cruz on this list.  Many of the delegates attempting to find an alternative to Trump are Cruz delegates (which makes sense as Cruz as the second highest number of delegates).

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have finally made it on enough betting sites to be included in the odds.

• Johnson, the Libertarian candidates makes his debut at 0.6%. He has been polling at between 4% and 6% in the four polls that include all four candidates.
• Stein, the Green party candidate, debuts at 0.4%.  She has been polling 2%-4% in these same polls.

Here’s the full odds:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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