A few polls were released on Thursday and Sunday.  The most interesting were in NC and CO.

A NC poll released on Thursday showed a tie between Trump and Clinton.  This was followed up by a poll released on Sunday that had Clinton at +2.  Previous polls had Trump +4.  This was enough to move the state from a likely R in the last forecast to a tossup.

In the last 5 elections CO has gone Republican 3 times and Democrat 2 times.  The latest poll released on Sunday had Clinton +1.  That was the first poll in nearly 3 months and it was enough to move the state from lean D to tossup.

In total these two moves amounted to Clinton increasing her lead from 70 to 76. (307-231)

Other polls released included:

• 6/26 WI poll Clinton +5 confirms likely D
• 6/26 FL poll Clinton +3 confirms lean D

Here’s a trend of the forecast

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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There was very little movement this week, but there was enough for Hillary Clinton to increase her lead over Donald Trump to an 8 week high.

Clinton’s odds increased by 0.2% to 67.2%, her highest in 8 weeks.

Trump’s odds declined by 0.5% to 25.3%, his lowest in 8 weeks. This cause led to a 42% margin for Clinton over Trump, the largest since the beginning of May.

There was virtually no movement in the other odds except for Paul Ryan.  He was up from 0.8% to 1.1%.  He has nearly double over the last 5 weeks.  What is driving it?  How could Ryan win? According to this article, the unlikely scenario would begin with Gary Johnson winning a few states to prevent any candidate from getting the electoral votes needed to win.

Here are the overall odds of all candidates:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Where was the race a year ago this week?

The one constant is Hillary Clinton led at 42%.  She has led the odds since the start of the race.

Donald Trump on the other hand had just announced he is entering the race. That announcement was enough to vault him from 50th place the prior week to 18th place.  Here’s what I said about Trump in that post:

“The other big move this week was Donald Trump entering the race.  The announcement doubled his odds from 0.4% to 0.8% moving him from 50th place all the way up to 18th place. Surprisingly he is well ahead of veteran politicians who have declared including Santorum, Perry, Graham, Chafee, Pataki.   It remains to be seen if this betting odds hype translates into the polls and later to votes.”

It’s clear in this case that the betting odds were ahead of what most experts thoughts.

Bernie Sanders was already hot, as he had just jumped Joe Biden but was still behind Elizabeth Warren. Here’s what I said about him :

“Bernie Sanders continues his hot streak coming in at 1.6% and jumping over Joe Biden to 3rd place for the Democrats and 7th place overall.  He is within striking distance of Elizabeth Warren who has indicated she is not running.”

The big news of the week was Jeb Bush entering the race:

“Jeb Bush officially enters the races and has the biggest move up from 10.8% to 11.3%.   This just gets him back to where he was 4 weeks ago as he’s been losing ground to Marco Rubio the last few weeks.

Bush’s improvement comes at the expense of Scott Walker and Rand Paul who each drop 0.2% to 4.2% and 2.3%.  They both remain in 4th and 5th place respectively.”

Here’s the full list of odds  as of 6/20/2015

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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