Donald Trump was able to reverse a four week trend of declines this week. The improvement may be from Hillary Clinton faltering rather than Trump improving.

Trump’s odds improved by 0.7% to 26.0%.  That is the highest he has been in the last three weeks.  He still trails by 40.4%, which is the closest he has been to Clinton in the last four weeks.

Trump’s improvement is most likely a result of Clinton’s drop.  The news cycle this week was filled with the Benghazi Report, the E-mail probe, as well as Bill Clinton’s meeting with Loretta Lynch.  Clinton dropped by 0.9% to 66.4%.  That is her lowest in four weeks.

Not all of Clinton’s drop went to Trump.  Bernie Sanders’ chances showed a small sign of life.  Anytime Benghazi or the e-mail probe gets coverage, Sanders’ odds pick up.  He was up 0.2% to 3.0%, the highest he has been in three weeks.

Here are the full odds:

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A total of 12 state polls have been released the last three days, many of which were battleground states.

The two polls that impacted the forecast were OH and NH.

Ohio was thought to be a tossup and battleground state, but the latest poll showed Clinton leading by 4.  This is on top of the previous two polls showing Clinton +5 and Clinton +2.  That was enough to move the state from tossup to lean D.  This is significant as OH has a fairly large 18 electoral votes.

New Hampshire has also been trending to Clinton.  After a tie near the end of May, the last two polls have been Clinton +4 and Clinton +5.  That was enough to move it from tossup to lean D.  NH only has 4 electoral votes.

This increased Clinton’s lead from 76 to 88 (313-225).  It’s her largest lead since the middle of May.

Other polls released included:

• 6/27 AR Trump +11 confirms state as solid R
• 6/27 TX Trump +8 confirms state as solid R
• 6/28 WI Clinton +8 confirms state as likely D
• 6/28 AZ 2 polls  Clinton +5 and Trump +4 confirms tossup
• 6/28 IA Clinton +2 confirms tossup
• 6/28 PA Clinton +4 confirms state as lean D
• 6/29 NH Clinton +5 confirms state as lean D
• 6/29 NC Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
• 6/29 FL Clinton +4 confirms state as lean D

Here’s a trend of the forecast

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

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The first Trump vs. Clinton poll was released for Arkansas and showed the state comfortably for Trump (+11).

Another poll was released for Texas showing Trump leading Clinton by 8.  This is the first Clinton vs Trump poll since September.

Both of these states are expected to be solid Republican states and don’t change the forecast which remains at 307 to 231 Clinton.

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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