Donald Trump’s odds had a small bump post RNC as they improved from 30.4% to 31.2%. The 31.2% is his highest in eight weeks and second highest ever. This is the fourth straight week he has been up.
Hillary Clinton saw a small drop of 0.2% to 64.1%, her lowest in seven weeks.
Most of the gain for Trump came from the drops from Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden as betting on Clinton not being the Democratic candidate sees a shrinking window of time.
Overall Clinton maintains a significant 33% lead over Trump that has declined for four straight weeks and that peaked in April at 48.6%.
Here are the overall odds:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
In the last update for the VP odds, Tim Kaine has jumped to the front and has more than a 50% chance based on betting odds.
Kaine improved his odds from 33.3% to the current 51.7%.
Tom Vilsack has been the other hot candidate. The current agriculture secretary and former Iowa governor has come out of nowhere into second place at 15.0%.
Third and Fourth place went to Elizabeth Warren at 6.2% and Tom Perez as 5.5%. Both have been in the top 5 for a while but at much higher odds.
The biggest drop has been Julian Castro who was once the front runner and is now 5th at 3.9%.
Here’s the full list:
Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections
July has been a good month for Trump as far as the state polls which has allowed him to close the gap from an electoral college forecast perspective.
33 polls have been released so far in July (and 38 since the last update). While many of these polls merely confirmed earlier forecasts, they did cause the forecasts for six states to shift:
FL: started the month as lean D but 4 polls initially moved the state to tossup, then to lean R, back to the current tossup. The 4 polls include a tie, 2 polls with Trump +5, and the latest with Clinton +5. Given the high number of electoral votes (29, 3rd highest), this will be a must win state for both candidates.
PA: started the month as out as lean D but 3 polls (Clinton +2, Trump +6, Clinton +8) have moved it to a tossup. It will be another must tossup state with its 20 electoral votes.
CO moves from tossup to lean D to likely D as a total of 5 polls help add color to the state (Clinton +7, +1, +9, +13, +6)
MO moves from lean R to likely R based on a Trump +10 poll
NC moves from tossup to lean D as poll has Clinton +6
MI from likely D to lean D as 3 polls show a smaller Clinton lead (+3, +3, +5) than before
All these polls have moved the forecast from 314 to 224 to begin the month (90 point Clinton lead) to the current 298 to 240 forecast (58 point lead). Trump got as close as 291 to 247 (44 points) in the middle of the month when FL temporarily moved to lean R. That was the closest he has been.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections
