In a week where Hillary Clinton spiked in the national polls,  she also gained ground in many battleground states and as a result the Electoral race.

Here are the recent polls that have impacted the forecast:

• NC Poll Trump +4 moves  state from lean D to tossup
• 2 MI Polls (Clinton +9, Clinton +10)  moves state from lean D to likely D
• 2 PA Polls (Clinton +4 and Clinton +13) moves the state from lean D to likely D
• NH Poll (Clinton +15) moves state to likely D
• 3 GA Polls (Trump +4, tie, Clinton +3) moves state from lean R to tossup

The above moved the forecast from the previous 305-233 Clinton to the current 312-226 Clinton.  The 86 point lead is the largest since 7/6.

Other polls during the period:

• OK Poll (Trump +24) confirms state as solid R
• NV Poll (Clinton +1) confirms state as tossup
• FL Poll (Clinton +4) confirms state as tossup

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Donald Trump suffered through a bad week with many controversies including the back and forth with Khan and comments last Sunday about Ukraine.  This dropped Trump’s odds from 33.7% to 25.3%.  That is the lowest since the third week of June.

In the mean time, it allowed Hillary Clinton to climb by 8% to reach an all time high of 70.1%.  Her previous high was at the end of April at 68.4%.

Clinton’s lead over Trump of 44.9% is also the highest since the end of April.

With some chatter about Donald Trump potentially dropping out, Paul Ryan’s odds increased from 1.0% to 1.5%.  He jumps over Bernie Sanders who is at 1.2%.

Here’s the full board:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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It’s been a week since Donald Trump caught Hillary Clinton in the poll of polls (and passed her in several polls).  Since then the trend has reversed with Clinton receiving a bump from the DNC and Trump being involved in a controversies with the Khan family and his views on Ukraine and Russia.

Clinton has won the 5 reputable polls taken since the start of the  DNC, with the two biggest wins coming in the two polls post the DNC and the start of the Khan controversy.

The poll of polls has her now leading by 5.1% (46.4% to 41.3%), her biggest lead since 6/27.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls used in the tracking:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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