For the second straight week Hillary Clinton’s odds reached a new high up from 70.1% to 72.2%.  She is up 10% in the last two weeks.

Donald Trump’s odds mirrored that change as he was down 2.2% to 23.1%.  This is the lowest he has been since the beginning of May.  Trump’s campaign has been resilient in past drops: beginning of February (lost Iowa caucus to Cruz), beginning of April (Cruz wins Wisconsin) and end of June (Pre RNC speculation of Republican alternatives to Trump).  We’ll see if he bounces back after these past two weeks.

Here is a full list of the odds:

Looking into the odds at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, It appears that we are headed for a split government.

The Democrats have a slight edge to win the Senate: 49.5% Democrats win vs. 28.2% Republicans win and a 22.3% chance the senate is 50/50.

The Republicans are very likely to maintain control of the House with an 84.0% chance.

The fact that Clinton has such high odds of winning the presidency, and the Republicans have such a high chance of keeping the House results in low odds for either party to win all three.  Currently the Democrats have a slightly better chance (21.0%) vs. the Republicans (19.0%).  This is due to their slight edge in winning the Senate.  It does mean that there is a 60.0% chance that neither party has all three.

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Hillary Clinton continued to increase her forecasted electoral lead over the last five days with 21 different state polls being released.

Here are the recent polls that have impacted the forecast:

• VA Poll Clinton +12 moves state from lean D to likely D
• 2 GA Polls (first Clinton +7 and then Trump +4) move state from tossup to lean D back to tossup
• UT Poll +12 moves state from likely R to solid R
• WI Poll Clinton +13 moves state from likely D to solid D
• SC Poll Trump +2 moves state from solid R to likely R

The above moved the forecast from the previous 312-226 Clinton to the current 316-222 Clinton.  The lead peaked at 102 points on 8/10 but decreased to the current 94 points based on GA swinging back to a tossup.

Other polls during the period:

• IA Poll Trump +1 confirms state as tossup
• NY Poll Clinton +14 confirms state as solid D
• ME Poll Clinton +10 confirms state as solid D
• FL Polls (Clinton +1, tie) confirms state as tossup
• IA Poll tie confirms state as tossup
• PA Poll Clinton +9 confirms state as likely D
• 2 OH Poll (Clinton +4, +2) confirm state as tossup
• NC Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
• 2 PA polls (Clinton +9) confirm state as likely D
• KS Poll Trump +5 confirms state as solid R
• AZ Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
• NV Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Hillary Clinton’s post DNC momentum continued as she expanded her lead from last week’s 5% to nearly 10% (50.1% to 40.4%).  This is the biggest lead she has had on Donald Trump since both have become the clear nominees.  She has led in the last 13 reputable national polls released covering polling dates from 7/26.

Late last week, there were rumors of Donald Trump’s camp being frustrated with the candidate.  That lead to a “reset” of the campaign.  The candidate followed that up with a disciplined economic speech on Monday, followed by a controversial “Second Amendment people” comment on Tuesday.  Clinton has her own controversy with more emails just released on Wednesday that shed light on the relationship between the Clinton foundation and the State Department.  It will be interesting to see how the polls move, if at all, as a result.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls used in the tracking:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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