Updated Weekly Odds: Trump Reverses Trend and Inches Closer to Clinton; Republican Improve Odds of Winning House, Democrats of Winning Senate Leading to Increased Likelihood of Split Government

It was an eventful week with the two candidates accusing each other of bigotry, more Clinton Foundation emails coming out raising questions about access of donors to Clinton, some confusion over the immigration policy from the Trump campaign,  new leadership asserting themselves in the Trump campaign ,and Trump beginning to air ads.  Through it all, Donald Trump was able to make up some ground for the first time in four weeks.  Trump improved from 22.3% to 23% while Clinton dropped from 72.8% to 72.2%.  The lead of 49.2% is the same as it was two weeks ago.

Here is a full list of the odds:

Looking into the odds at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased.

Democrat odds of winning the Senate increased from 51.6% to 55.9%.  The odds of the Republicans winning the Senate is now at 23.2% and the odds of a split Senate is at 20.9%.

The Republicans, for their part, increased their odds of winning the House from 83.2% to 84.7%.

The odds of neither party winning the House, Senate, and White House increased from 56% to 61%.  Although the Democrats hold the edge for winning the Presidency and the Senate, the odds of the Republicans winning all three is higher than that of the Democrats (20.5% vs. 18.5%).  This is driven by the fact that the Senate is so close.  A trump win would in all likelihood mean the Republicans also win the Senate.  Even with a Clinton win, the Democrats are unlikely take the House.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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One thing has become clear over the last month or so: Hillary Clinton has done a better job in moving the needle in “battleground” states.  Whether it be FL or OH or PA or VA or CO or NH, Clinton has been able to take these states from tossups to get them to move into her column.

There have only been 6 state polls since the last update three of which moved the forecast:

• Two OH Polls (Clinton +6 and Clinton +4) move the state from tossup to lean D
• a MO poll (Trump +1) moves state from likely R to lean R (prior polls are Clinton +1 and Trump +2; State was once solid R with a double digit lead for Trump)

The above polls moved the forecast from 335-203 to the current 341-197, which is the largest to date Clinton lead.

Other polls in the period:

• IA poll tie confirms state as tossup
• VA Poll  Clinton +16 confirms state as solid D
• UT poll Trump +15 confirms state as solid R

With the removal of OH from list of tossups, we are now down to 4:

• AZ
• GA
• IA
• NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• FL
• NC
• NH
• OH
• PA
• VA
• WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Hillary Clinton swung the polls very quickly after the DNC.  In the span of 10 days, she went from trailing Donald Trump by a point to being up by seven.  Trump has been slowly gaining back some of the ground since.

In the last two weeks, Trump has been able to cut the lead from 7% to 5% on a small but consistent basis.   In fact the last 4 national polls all show Clinton’s lead at 5 or less.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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