Over the last two months there have been two  major moves in the polls: Clinton’s meteoric rise coming from behind to being up by nearly 7% in the span of a week post DNC in late July and Trump’s consistent gains throughout August and September that peaked with Clinton’s pneumonia episode.

Since then there have been to micro-trends amidst volatile polls.  Originally it appeared Clinton was gaining back her momentum, improving her 1.3% lead to 3.1% in the span of a week.  That small trend reversed and Trump seems to be gaining ground over the last 5 days and is now only 1.3% back again.  Trump was last this close on 7/28 which is when Clinton began gaining her post DNC jump.  It will be interesting to see whether this first debate causes a jolt to get us out of this 1%-3% Clinton lead.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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16 Polls were released in the last three days with three of them impacting the forecast.  Trump’s gains on Clinton have slowed down as there are fewer battleground states for him to grab.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

• IA Poll Trump +7 moves state from lean R to likely R
• VA Poll Clinton +7 moves state from lean D to likely D
• PA Poll Clinton +2 moves state from likely D to lean D

The above moved the forecast from the previous 286-252 to the current 284-254.  The 30 point lead is Clinton’s smallest lead to date and inches Trump within striking distance on the eve of the first debate.

Here are the other polls:

• 3 GA Polls Trump +4, +6, +7 confirm state as likely R
• AR Poll Trump +21 confirms state as solid R
• CA Poll Clinton +16 confirms state as solid D
• MD Poll Clinton +33 confirms state as solid R
• LA Trump +16 confirms state as solid R
• IL Clinton +6 confirms state as solid D
• WI Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D
• NC Poll tie confirms state as lean R
• FL Poll Trump +1 confirms state as tossup
• 2 CO Polls Clinton +7, +2 confirm state as lean D

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• FL

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• NH
• PA
• VA
• WI

Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:

• OH
• IA
• NC
• NV

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

• Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
• Click here for running list of forecast changes
• Click here for results from last 5 elections
• Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Hillary Clinton’s odds showed a small rebound of 2.5% to 59.0%.  This rebound was driven by the decline in fears of her dropping out and it came at the expense of the odds of Joe Biden (3.1% to 2.3%), Bernie Sanders (2.6% to 2.0%), and Tim Kaine (1.4% to 0.7%).

Donald Trump’s odds remained relatively flat (34.5% vs. 34.7%). He is behind Clinton 24.5%, which is the second lowest gap of the race, with the smallest being last week at 21.8%.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased as odds of a Republican controlled government decreased.

The Republicans have always had a high probability of keeping the House took a slight dip from last week’s election season high of 90.0% to 88.6%, still the second highest it has been.

That was not the case as far as the Republican odds of winning the Senate. Republican Senate odds improved for the fourth week in a row, this time from 26.5% to 38.5%, a new high.  The Democrats still have higher odds at 40.8%, but that was down from 42.0% the prior week.  The odds of a 50/50 split dropped from 21.5% to 20.6%.

The  decrease in Republican odds of  taking Congress decreased the odds of a Republican controlled government to 28% from 31%.  That is still the second highest % this year.  The Democrat odds saw a slight increase to 12.5%, basically the odds of them winning the Congress.  The odds of a split government increased to 59.5%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 670