Hillary Clinton’s odds showed a big rebound this week following the first debate.  The odds now reflect a 65.3% chance of Clinton winning, a 6.3% jump from last week’s 59.0%.  Approximately 2/3 of that gain came at the expense of Trump who dropped from 34.5% to 30.1%, his lowest in 4 weeks.  The other part of the gain came at the expense of other Democratic possibilities who bounced up two weeks ago with Clinton’s pneumonia episode.  The concerns over her health seem to have subsided and pulled the odds for Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Tim Kaine down with them.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government reached a new high as the Republican odds of control take a hit with Trump’s decline, and the Democrats are not likely to have control since their probability of winning the house remains very low.

The Republican odds of winning the House took a small dip this week decreasing from 88.6% to 86.5%.  This is the second straight decline, but is still above where it was in August.

The odds of the Democrats capturing the Senate improved from 40.8% to 46.1%.  The odds of a split Senate dropped from 20.6% to 19.8%.  This puts the odds of the Republicans winning it at 34.1%, the lowest it has been in three weeks.

The  Republican decrease in odds in all three  areas decreased the odds of a Republican controlled government from 28% to 22.5%. That is the lowest it has been in five weeks. Conversely the gains on the Democratic side led to an increase in them controlling the government from 12.5% to 14%.  The decline in the Republican odds was much larger than the Democrats gain, meaning the odds of a split government increased to 63.5% from 59.5%, a new high (Previous high 61.5% three weeks ago)

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

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9 Polls have been released in the last three days with 4 of them impacting the forecast.  It appears Clinton is getting stronger in the majority of swing states post the debate with the most important being in FL.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

• FL Poll Clinton +4 moves state from tossup to lean D
• WA Poll Clinton +6 moves state from solid D to likely D
• 2 MI Polls (Clinton +5, +7) move state from lean D to likely D

The above moved the forecast from the previous 289-249 to the current 298-240.  This current 58 point lead is Clinton’s largest since 9/14 when she led by 74.

Here are the other polls:

• Initial NE Poll Trump +27 confirms state as solid R
• CA Poll Clinton +26 confirms state as solid D
• MO Poll Trump +10 confirms state as solid R
• SC Poll Trump +4 confirms state as likely R
• NH Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• CO
• NC

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• FL
• NH
• PA
• VA
• WI

Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:

• OH
• IA
• NV

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

• Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
• Click here for running list of forecast changes
• Click here for results from last 5 elections
• Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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21 Polls were released in the last three days with 14 of them impacting the forecast.  Both Trump and Clinton made gains in battleground states with a slight overall advantage to Clinton.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

• 2 NC Polls both Clinton +1 moved state from lean R to tossup
• IA Poll tie moves state from likely R to lean R
• 2 VA Polls Clinton +8, +6 move state from likely D to solid D
• 4 PA Polls (Clinton +2, +1, +2, +3) move state from likely D to lean D
• MO Poll Trump +9 moves state from likely R to solid R
• OH Poll Trump +1 moves state from likely R to lean R
• 3 CO Polls (Trump +1, +1, Clinton +1) moves state from lean R to tossup

The above moved the forecast from the previous 284-254 to the current 289-249.  This is the first gain Clinton has made in the electoral forecast in nearly a month when she led by 144 points on 8/23.

Here are the other polls:

• NY Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D
• MA Poll Clinton +13 confirms state as solid D
• LA Poll Trump +10 confirms state as solid R
• MN Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D
• FL Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as tossup
• UT Poll Trump +9 confirms state as solid R
• ME Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as lean D

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• CO
• FL
• NC

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• NH
• PA
• VA
• WI

Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:

• OH
• IA
• NV

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

• Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
• Click here for running list of forecast changes
• Click here for results from last 5 elections
• Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 599