A week ago Donald Trump was closing the lead on Hillary Clinton when the Access Hollywood video was released. Since then it’s been a bumpy ride. Through that tape and the debate shortly after, Clinton has expanded her lead in the poll of polls from 3.3% to 5.1%. This is through Monday. There aren’t enough polls yet for Tuesday-Thursday. It’s important to point out that one of the polls used, the Rasmussen Report, is now showing Trump in the lead. It polls 500 likely voters every day and releases the numbers on a 3 day rolling basis.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
30 state polls have been released since the last update with 12 of them impacting the forecast.
Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:
3 OH Poll (Clinton +1, +2, +4) moves state from lean R to lean D
2 PA Polls (Clinton +12, +8) move state from likely D to solid D
Initial AK poll Trump +3 moves state from solid R to likely R
CO Poll tie moves state from likely D to lean D
WA Poll Clinton +16 moves state from likely D to solid D
MI Poll Clinton +11 moves state from likely D to solid D
NV Poll tie moves state from lean D to tossup
RI Poll Clinton +20 moves state from likely D to solid D
NM Poll Clinton +13 moves state from likely D to solid D
The above moved the forecast from the previous 315-223 to the current 326-212. This current 114 point lead is Clinton’s largest since 8/31 when she led by 116.
Here are the other polls:
4 FL Polls Clinton +2, +2, +3, Trump +1 confirm state as lean D
IA Poll Trump +4 confirms state as likely R
VA Poll Clinton +12 confirms state as solid D
OR Poll Clinton +8 confirms state as solid D
2 WI Poll Clinton +8, +4 confirms state as solid D
NH Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as likely D
IN Poll Trump +5 confirms state as solid R
2 AZ Polls Tie, Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
TN Poll Trump +11 confirms state as solid R
MD Poll Clinton +36 confirms state as solid D
MA Poll Clinton +32 confirms state as solid D
NC Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as lean D
TX Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R
With many of the tossup states swinging Clinton’s way, we are down to two tossup states:
AZ
NV
Many once thought to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
CO
FL
NC
NH
OH
PA
VA
WI
Trump is leading in just one thought to be tossup:
IA
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Hillary Clinton’s lead increased for 6 days after the debate, increasing from 2.0% to 4.0% by 10/1. Since then, Donald Trump has been cutting her lead day by day down to 2.5% by Thursday 10/6. This is one day prior to the latest controversy with old tapes of Trump talking about women. The next poll of polls will have that impact.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
