We just had our second Friday October Surprise. The initial one was Donald Trump with the Access Hollywood tape.  His odds tanked in the weekend after.  This time around, it’s the FBI finding more emails to look into that have caused Hillary Clinton’s odds, as of Saturday morning, to take a nose dive.  Clinton’s odds sank from 79.1% to 70.9%.  Donald Trump rose from 17.6% to 25.4%.  These odds are at a similar place to where they stood the Saturday just after the release of the Access Hollywood tapes.  Trump’s odds only showed a small decline then but saw a substantial decline the week after as women came forward and the story stayed in the news.  We’ll see what happens as more details come out on these emails.

The other interesting thing to watch is the odds of other potential Democratic “candidates”.  Bernie Sanders’ odds doubled from 0.6% to 1.2%, Joe Biden increased from 0.5% to 0.8%, and Tim Kaine from 0.4% to 0.6%.  Odds of Pence winning on the other hand declined from 0.9% to 0.4% as pressure to drop out decreased off Trump.

Here are the current odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government declined as the Republicans saw a spike in the probability of them controlling the government.

The odds of the Republicans keeping the House improved to 89.8% from 83.2%.  This is the second highest they have been (highest at 90% on 9/17)

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate declined from 62.3% to 51.1%. The odds of a split Senate increased slightly to 18.1% from 17.3%. This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at 30.8%, a big jump from last week’s low of 20.5% and the highest since October 1.

The fact that the Republican improved their odds of winning the Presidency, House , and Senate was reflected in the odds of controlling the government which spiked from 11.5% to 17.5%, the highest in four weeks.  The odds of the Democrats winning all three decreased from 19% to 15% moving. The most likely scenario continues to be a split government which has a 2 out of 3 chance.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Donald Trump made up some ground in the betting odds over the last week improving from 16.7% to 17.6%.  Hillary Clinton declined from 80.3% to 79.1%.  The 61.5% margin is her second highest behind last week’s 63.6% margin.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government declined as the Democrats saw an increase in their odds of capturing control.

After four straight weeks of declines, the odds of the Republicans maintaining the house improved from 79% to 83.2%.  This is the highest in three weeks.  The highest odds were five weeks ago at 90.0%.

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate improved for the fourth straight week from 55.7% to 62.3%. This is a new high eclipsing the 55.9% from eight weeks ago.  The odds of a split Senate declined from 19.6% to 17.3%  This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at just 20.5%,  a new low. The previous low was on 8/27 at 23.2%.

The Republican odds of winning the Presidency, House, and Senate, declined to a new low at 11.5%. That is a function of their declining chances of winning the Senate.  The odds of the Democrats winning all three also decreased, moving from 21% to 19%.  This breaks a 4 week streak of improvements, and comes as a result of the Republicans improving their odds of winning the house. This of course means the odds of  split government increased.  It is now at a new high of 70%, up from last week’s 65%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Although polls have continued to be inconsistent, (ranging from Clinton +12 to Trump +2), the average over the last 8 days (through polls taken Monday) has been consistently in the 5.7% to 6.0% range.  There is some hope for Trump supporters: the lowest Clinton lead out of those 8 days is Monday at 5.7% and with only a small sample of polls, Trump seems to be closing the gap slightly over the last few days.  We’ll see what happens as more polls are released for post third debate.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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