Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump continued to decline over the last few days. It is now at 1.9%, the lowest since September 26 (where it bottomed after Clinton’s bout with pneumonia) . Trump has now gained ground on Clinton the last 15 days
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
The Comey letter seems to have had a big impact on the race so far as there has been a big swing in state polls taken since. The biggest recent changes include:
GA Poll Trump +7 which moves state from lean R to likely R (previous polls ranged from Trump +1 to Trump +4)
NC Poll Trump +2 moves state from lean D to tossup (Previous polls ranged from Clinton +2 to Clinton +6)
2 PA polls moves state from likely D to lean D (Previous polls ranged from Clinton +5 to Clinton +8)
NV Poll Trump +4 (previous polls ranged from tie to Clinton +4)
CO Poll Clinton +1 (previous polls ranged from Clinton +3 to Clinton +11)
These gains have closed the forecast gap to the current 311 to 222 with clear momentum behind Trump. It will be interesting to monitor the next few days to see if the emails remain the top story or if something else comes up to fill the news. Clinton’s lead is now the lowest since 10/3 (Pre second debate).
The latest polls push have increased the list of tossups:
AZ
FL
IA
NC
NV
OH
Many once thought to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
CO
NH
PA
VA
WI
Trump will need all of the current tossups plus the majority of the once thought to be tossups that are now forecast as Clinton states to win this race.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
The updated poll of polls through Wednesday shows Donald Trump has cut Clinton’s lead over the last 12 days from 6.0% to 4.7%. That is Clinton’s smallest lead since October 9th, which is the Sunday of the second debate and a couple of days after the release of the Access Hollywood video. That period saw a big increase in the lead for Clinton as it went from 3.5% on that Friday to 5.9% by Tuesday.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
