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Trump’s Odds Continue to Drift Higher; Schultz Odds Reach High After Leaving Starbucks; Gillibrand Building Support Among Dems; Newsom Wins Primary and Odds Drop

Donald Trump improved his odds from 2.73X to 2.68X.  These are his best odds in 15 months.   One would expect a natural drift of the odds closer to 2.0X by the summer of 2020 as the number of days for any political catastrophe or potential Republican challenger shrink.

The biggest move up this week was Howard Schultz. The former leader of Starbucks stepped down this week and it was followed by immediate speculation of a 2020 run. His odds jumped from 59.0X to 47.4X.  These are his highest odds this cycle and push him up from 27th place to 16th place.

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to slowly drift up.  She was up this week from 24.2X to 23.4X, her highest in 9 weeks.  She remains in 7th place.  Gillibrand has been helping fellow Democrats raise money, which could payoff during a 2020 run.

Gavin Newsom won a spot in the primaries to run for CA Governor this week where he will be heavily favored.  There’s plenty of speculation about the current CA LT Governor’s potential as a Presidential candidate, although 2020 may not be the right year for him. His odds dropped from 42.5X to 47.8X, dropping him from 12th place to 17th place.

Here are the full odds:

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Top 7 Candidates Improve: Sanders up to Second Place; Kamala Harris at All Time High, Trump at 15 Months, Warren at 7 Week

All of the top candidates saw improvements in their odds this week.

Donald Trump’s odds are now at 2.73X, his highest since March of 2017.  His all time high was the start of 2017 at 2.41X.

The hottest name recently has been Bernie Sanders.  He took over second place from Kamala Harris 9 weeks ago and has since increased his lead.  His odds are currently at 10.9X (4 times lower than Trump’s)  up from 11.4X the prior week. He was at 14.4X three months ago.  Sanders will take a swing through CA next month,  a state that will play a big role in the 2020 since it has moved up its primary to March of that year.

Elizabeth Warren is also saw a big jump this week improving from 14.9X to 13.9X, her highest in 7 weeks.  She has has “quietly waged a months-long, behind-the-scenes effort to put “Pocahontas” in the past.” She jumped over Joe Biden for 4th place.

Despite falling from second place, Kamala Harris has been slowly improving and reached another high this week.  She improved from 12.1 to 12.0, an all time high.  Although her moves the past few months have been very incremental, she has improved on a pretty regular basis. She is currently in 3rd place.

Here are the full odds:

Views – 749

Trump at a New High for the Year; Kamala Harris Helping ’18 Dems and her 2020 Odds; Tim Ryan Makes Odds Debut; Kasich as an Independent?

Donald Trump continued to trend up and is now at his highest point in 59 weeks.  His odds improved from 2.77X to 2.75X.  He had been at 2.77X the last 5 weeks. His all time high this cycle was on 1/7/17 at 2.41X.

Kamala Harris is helping fellow Democrats campaign in Trump Country, but in what many believe is a “2020 shadow campaign”. Her odds improved from 12.5X to 12.3X, tying her all time high. She remains in 3rd place overall.

There are some that think John Kasich may/should end up running as an independent. His odds improved slightly this week from 67X to 63X.  He is currently in 27th place.

Tim Ryan has been making a few trips to early Presidential Primary states. He makes his debut in the odds this week at 101X and in 46th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

 

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Views – 747