Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop as former members of his inner circle have either been found guilty of crimes or have obtained immunity this week.  The odds worsened from 2.33X to 2.42X.  Putting things in perspectives, these are his lowest odds in only 8 weeks and he is still more than 4 times as likely as the next candidate to win in 2020.

What Trump’s bad week did do is give life to the odds of the top potential Republican alternatives.  Mike Pence’s odds jumped from 18.6X to 17.7X , his best in 5 weeks.  He remains in 6th overall.  Paul Ryan’s also saw improvement  from 52.1X to 49.3X, his highest in 4 weeks.  This was enough to move him from 18th place to 11th place.

The top Democrats also improved.  Kamala Harris, reached a new high improving from 11.3X to 10.4X. She has now been in 2nd place for 9 straight weeks. Elizabeth Warren improved from 13.4X to 12.6X, the best odds she has had in over 6 months to remain in 3rd place overall.

There was a strong debut this week from Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas.  His name recognition skyrocketed overnight after a speech in which he defended NFL players went viral. His odds are at 54.7X putting him in 15th place overall.

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Former Trump aide Omarosa’s book seemed to capture a lot of the media attention and took up much of the President’s tweets, but it seemed to have no impact on his odds.  They remained flat to last week at 2.33X and slightly below his high from two weeks ago at 2.31X.

Andrew Cuomo was another headliner this week, as Trump dared him to run in 2020. That seemed to put Trump in Cuomo’s head as he made a political mistake that he later admitted was “inartful”.  Cuomo’s odds dropped from 56.7X to 57.4X and from 17th place to 24th place.  This is a new low for the Governor, who started the election cycle in the top 10.

If it wasn’t for the calendar, one might think the 2020 Republican Primary has already started as the John Kasich and Trump camps went after each other this week.  Kasich’s odds improved from 61.3X to 52.9X and he moved up from 23rd place to 19th place.

One non politician gaining momentum but that remains a long shot is Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti. He hinted at a possible run last week and entered the standings in 29th place at 66.5X.  This week he began discussing his policy views, and his odds improved to 54X and 20th place overall.

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Donald Trump brought his improvement streak to 20 weeks this week as his odds once again improved from 2.35X to 2.31X.  He was at 2.79X at the beginning of the streak.

Kamala Harris continues to be strong in the number 2 spot and also set a new high at 11.2X improving from 11.4X.  This is her 6th straight week in the number 2 spot and has been trending up very slowly.

Joe Biden improved for the third straight week, this time from 14.1X to 13.8X.   He remained in 4th place overall. A poll released this week showed him ahead of Trump by 7 points (44 % Biden 37% Trump with 19% undecided).

Elizabeth Warren hinted in an interview that she might run with Trump being the main reason.  Her odds improved from 14.4X to 14.0X. These are her best odds in 8 weeks and she remains in 5th place.

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