Category Archives: Uncategorized

Uncategorized

Trump’s odds drop to lowest in 10 months; Biden up on poll showing he’s the name Dems/Indep most excited about running; Sherrod Brown jumps into top 10 as he reaches out about 2020; Bloomberg ready to spend $100 million of own money

Donald Trump’s Odds dropped for the sixth straight week, with this week’s drop being the largest from 2.67X to 2.83X. There are his lowest odds in 10 months. He is still above his all time low of 3.46X (Sept 2017) but well below his all time high (August 2018).

Joe Biden’s odds continue to improve this week jumping from 15.5X to 13.6X. This is a new high for him this cycle. He stays comfortably in 4th place overall, well ahead of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but well behind Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke. A poll released this week showed he is the name Democrats and Independents would be most excited about running.

Sherrod Brown had the biggest jump this week, improving from 38.8X to 27.8X. This is a new high for the Ohio Senator and allowed him to improve from 13th place to 8th place overall. He was in 33rd place the week before the elections, but winning a Senate comfortably in a swing state showed he had some potential. He has been reaching out to fellow Democrats to talk about a possible 2020 run.

Michael Bloomberg’s odds improved slightly from 33.9X to 31.8X and he rose from 12th place to 10th place as a report came out saying he’s ready to spend $100 million of his own money on a campaign. (His estimated networth is $40 billion)

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 750
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Gabbard 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Trump’s odds continue slow decline, Biden’s odds improve with win in Iowa Caucus poll, Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar join the top 10

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their slow decline and are at their lowest since June.  This week marked his 5th straight week of declines moving from 2.65X to 2.67X.  This week had more than usual list of bad headlines for the President including large stock market declines, his Defense Secretary resigning, and a government shutdown over the Wall. His odds were at 2.43X on 11/10 when the declines began. His gap vs. second place (currently Beto O’ Rourke) is now at 2.9X, which is the lowest in over a year. 

Joe Biden won a poll of likely Democrat Iowa Caucus goers last week (32%) followed by Sanders (19%), O’Rourke (11%), Warren (8%), and Harris (5%).  His odds jumped from 16.8X to 15.5X.  These are his best odds in over three months. He remains 4th place overall.

Tulsi Gabbard continues to eye a White House run.  Her odds improved from 35.9X to 33.2X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 into 9th place.  This is only her second visit into the top 10.  The last was 7 weeks ago and only lasted a week.  That came as reports spread about her approaching staffers about a run.

Amy Klobuchar’s public profile continues to grow, this week through an interview with the New Yorker. The odds moved from 36.0X to 33.3X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 as well from 12th place. This is her first visit into the top 10.

Below are the full odds:

 

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Views – 717
2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds continue slow decline giving life to the odds of other Republicans; Beto stays hot and takes lead for the Democrats; Former Democratic favorite Warren continues decline, now 6th overall

Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop moving from 2.61X to 2.65X.  He has now dropped for five straight weeks and his odds are their lowest since June.

The recent drops appear to have given life to the odds of Republican alternatives, as a group of them jumped all of a sudden including:

  • Mike Pence from 25.7X to 23.5X
  • Paul Ryan from 83.2X to 78.2X
  • Mitt Romney from 93.3X to 80.8X
  • Marco Rubio from 96.4X to 94.1X
  • Scott Walker from 101.2X to 97.8X
  • Ted Cruz from 115.3X to 110.9X
  • Tom Cotton from 115.4X to 73.9X
  • Ben Sasse from 124.3X to 119.5X

Beto O’Rourke has been the hottest name in the betting odds, and that has seemed to translate to mainstream political pundits, as CNN ranks him second among Democrats for 2020. His odds improved again this time from 8.22X to 7.71 times.  That was enough to have him jump over Kamala Harris to become the odds favorite for Democrats.

The person that has seen the biggest drop recently has been Elizabeth Warren.  In a recent poll, she has dropped to 7th overall for the Democrats. Her odds dropped again this week from 18.1X to 20.1X.  That dropped her to 5th overall in odds for the Democrats.  She was in 2nd place among the Democrats and at 11.5X merely seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 796