There was very little change in the odds this week. In fact the top 18 remained in the same order.
Kamala Harris saw a small improvement from 4.87X to 4.73X. That is her highest in three weeks. Her rise came at the expense of Biden and Trump.
Joe Biden dropped from 5.17X to 5.19X, his lowest in three weeks.
Donald Trump dropped from 7.12X to 7.17X. Trump likely suffered the last court challenge for the 2020 election this week, but everything points at him likely running in 2024.
The biggest move was in CA governor Gavin Newsom. He dropped from 44.6X to 46.9X, but that is still 2nd highest for him in this cycle. That was enough to drop him from 19th to 21st place. Newsom has been one of the most heavy handed in his approach to the pandemic out of all the Governors.
Kamala Harris saw a small drop but continued to lead with his odds moving from 4.83X to 4.87X, a new low for 2024.
Typically when Harris and Biden move in opposite directions. That wasn’t the case here, as Biden also dropped from 4.98X to 5.17X. He remained in second place overall.
Donald Trump’s odds improved from 7.65X to 7.12X, a brand new high.
The same happened with Mike Pence improving from 15.3X to 13.4X, enough to jump back over Nikki Haley who is at 13.9X.
The big improvement was Tucker Carlson improving from 31.1X to 26.3X, which allow him to jump from 9th place overall to 7th place.
For a second straight week Harris’ odds dropped and Biden’s improved. They are now fairly close to each other. Harris’ odds dropped from 4.66X to 4.83X, her lowest since we started tracking the odds 4 weeks ago. Joe Biden’s odds improved from 5.48X to 4.98X, a new high for 2024.
Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week at 7.65X, his second highest behind the 7.48X he had on 11/14.
The one notable change is Nikki Haley jumping over Mike Pence for 4th place. Her odds improved from 13.6X to 13.0X, a new high for her. Mike Pence’s odds tanked dropping from 13.1X to 15.3X, a new low for 2024.
There was an interesting poll of Republicans that showed:
53% of Republicans and GOP primary voting independents would pick Trump in a field of 13 potential challengers
Pence was second with 9%
Sens. Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, and Nikki Haley each got less than 5 percent support
If Trump is taken out of the field, the field is tied between Pence and Donald Trump Jr. Interestingly, Trump Jr. is no where on the boards we are tracking (at least yet), where as his sister is in 8th place.
