Kamala Harris continued to lead but saw a drop in odds for a second straight week with her odds moving from 4.87X to 4.97X. This is now her lowest passing by last week’s low.
Joe Biden also saw a drop for a second straight week, but his drop was smaller going from 5.11X to 5.15X. That is his lowest in three weeks. Interestingly, by dropping slower than Harris, Biden has closed the gap to the smallest in five weeks.
Donald Trump also saw a small drop from 7.30X to 7.33X. That is his lowest in five weeks.
Interestingly the biggest mover was Mike Pence. He jumped from 13.9X to 12.7X, his highest since the middle of November. This allowed him to jump over Nikki Haley for 4th place overall. Mike Pence will jump to the front of the headlines next week as he will be playing a role in Congress’ certification of the election and he is getting pressure from Trump to be “loyal”.
A couple of others to keep an eye on this week in Congress and they jockey for positioning with the Trump base are Jos Hawley, who is currently in 20th place overall at 46.2X. He was the first Senator to say he will contest the certification. Ted Cruz is the other, and will fight for the spotlight. He’s currently in 13th place at 35.0X. Both could be short term plays.
The majority of the top candidates saw a drop this week. Kamala Harris declined from 4.65X to 4.87X, tied for her lowest odds on 12/5.
Biden saw a smaller drop from 5.09X to 5.11X. This allowed him to get closer to Harris. He is at his second closest point to the lead since end of November.
Donald Trump also saw a drop from 7.11X to 7.30X. This is his lowest ub tge last 4 weeks. His lowest was 9.25X in the first set of odds following the elections on 11/7 when there was a lot more doubt about the outcome of the 2020 elections.
Ivanka Trump improved to 24.9X from 25.4X. These are her highest odds. She currently sits in 7th place and has ranged between 7th and 8th place.
Pete Buttigieg, the apparent Transportation Secretary, jumped from 12th place to 10th place as he improved from 32.4X to 30.8X. These are his best odds of the cycle.
Kamala Harris had a small improvement from 4.73X to 4.65X, her second highest odds for 2024. She was at 4.50X mid November.
Joe Biden also saw a small increase from 5.19X to 5.09X. That is also Biden’s second highest. The President Elect got his highest odds of 4.98X at the end of November.
Not to be left out, Donald Trump also saw a small improvement from 7.17X to 7.11X. For Trump that is a new high. His previous high was 7.12X first week of December.
Nikki Haley jumped over Mike Pence into 4th place as she improved from 13.87X to 13.15X. these are her highest odds since 13.00X end of November. The was the only other week she was in 4th place.
The biggest jump of the week belonged to Michelle Obama who improved in her odds from 27.2X to 23.2X. That was a new high and it allowed her to jump from 10th place to 7th place.
