The odds remained unchanged this week so I thought I’d look at the candidates with the biggest changes in odds over the last 2 months. For the full set of odds checkout my site
Most Improved: Jeb Bush +1.0% (3.5% to 4.5%) Hillary Clinton +0.9% (39.9% to 40.8%) Rick Perry +0.8% (1.4% to 2.2%) Mitt Romney +0.5% (0.9% to 1.3%)
Biggest Declines: Chris Christie -1.3% (4.7% to 3.4%) Eric Cantor -0.5% (0.9% to 0.4%) Rand Paul -0.4% (3.5% to 3.1%) Joe Biden -0.4% (2.3% to 1.9%)
There have been two additions to the odds in the last two months: Deval Patrick and Ben Carson, but both have very long odds. 250 to 1 odds and a 0.3% probability.
New Hampshire Poll of potential Republican electorate shows Rand Paul leading (14%) followed by Chris Christie (13%), Jeb Bush (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%). Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio tied for 5th at 7%.
Interestingly, Marco Rubio moves from fifth to first for the question “Who is your second choice”
Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 74/18
Only Rand Paul is within the margin of error in a head to head contest with Clinton (46/43)
Christie, Bush, and Rubio are close behind losing by a margin of 47/42 to Clinton.
Iowa Poll of potential Republican electorate shows a tie between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul (12%) followed by Paul Ryan (11%), Rick Santorum (9%), Chris Christie (8%), and a three way tie for 6th of Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio (7%).
Interestingly, Rick Santorum moves from fourth to second for the question “Who is your second choice”
Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 70/20
Three Republican candidates are within the margin of error in a head to head battle with Clinton: