Donald Trump’s Odds for re-election declined slightly after his first week in office. His payout increased from 2.4X to 2.5X, the highest in 6 weeks. Compared to the rest of the pool he has a 26% chance, still higher than the next five candidates combined.
Hillary Clinton has been moving up since the end of November when she was in 11th place. She is now in 5th place, tied with Cory Booker. Their payout is at 23.1x and their probability is at 2.8%.
The other big mover was Kamala Harris who moves up from 14th place to 12th place. Her payout moved from an average of 32.5x to 30.3x times.
There was very little change in the odds this week. In fact the top four have been the same since I started tracking the new odds two weeks after the elections.
Donald Trump continues to lead at 26.5% and a payout of 2.4 to 1. The payout has stabilized at 2.4, after starting out at 2.6.
The next three include Mike Pence at 8.8 to 1, Elizabeth Warren at 10.8 to 1, and Michelle Obama at 13.1 to 1.
Cory Booker has been a fairly consistent number 5 with a current payout of 23.7 to 1 and Hillary Clinton has ranged between 11th and her current 6th place at 25 to 1.
Donald Trump continued to dominate the odds having as much probability as the next six candidates combined. The payoff for placing a bet on Trump remained the same at 2.4X.
Biggest Movers up:
Bernie Sanders: 11th place from 18th as payoff dropped from 33.9x to 28.3x
Nikki Haley: 31st place to 20th place as payoff dropped from 77.3X to 40.7X
Biggest Movers down:
Tim Kaine: 13th place from 8th place as payoff increased from 22.6x to 29.6x
Joe Biden: 14th place from 10th place as payoff increased from 23.1x to 30.0x
Marco Rubio: 21st place from 15th place as payoff increased from 30.0x to 41.4x
Debuts:
Sherrod Brown: D Senator from OH at 16th place with 34.0X
Tulsi Gabbard: D Rep from HI at 22nd place with 51.0X
Leonardo DiCaprio: Actor 36th place with 81.0X
Sarah Palin: former R Gov of AK 40th place with 101X
