Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Abrams 2020, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Odds for Trump and Biden flat with Trump still holding a lead; Harris and Abrams see boost while Demings makes her debut in VP odds; Polls in TX, OH, and NC show Trump in lead while polls in FL and WI show Biden in lead

Trump’s odds remained flat at 1.91X, tied for a 4 week high. Biden’s inched up to 2.26X from 2.27X, a 3 week high. Trump’s implied odds against Biden remained at 54.2% (rounding), tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the odds rose for most female African American candidates: Kamala Harris remained the top candidate and rose from 3.6X to 2.9X. Stacy Abrams rose from 16.7X to 12.5X. Val Demings made her debut at 25.0X (tied with Michelle Obama for 7th place).

Here are the full odds:

Polls from swing states released this week included:

  • Texas +6 for Trump (reinforces TX for Trump after last week’s Biden +1)
  • Ohio +3 for Trump (after 3 straight for Biden, reinforcing why we still have it as a tossup)
  • Wisconsin Biden +3 (3 straight for Biden, but too slim to pull out of tossup)
  • North Carolina Trump +3 (reinforcing the tossup with the last 4 polls being split)
  • Florida Biden +6. This is the biggest news and causes us to pull FL out of the tossup and into Biden’s. Biden has now led the last three polls in that state +4, +3, and now his widest margin of +6

With the change in Florida, the projection is now at Biden 330 and Trump 208. This is a big disconnect from the odds. The odds and the polls are what they are. We are making a judgment call on what the polls mean electorally. People are betting that just like 2016, the polls are misleading. Here are the details behind the electoral forecast:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds See Slight Improvement while Biden’s Stayed Flat. Obama’s Odds Jump to 14 Months High; Warren’s VP Odds Improve; Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead in State Shrinking

Trump’s odds inched up from 1.93X to 1.91X. That is a three week high. Joe Biden’s odds stayed flat at 2.27X , his lowest since he became the presumptive nominee. That raised Trump’s implied odds against Biden to 54.2%, tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

With Biden stuck, there have been some movement in the Democratic field. The biggest move this week came from Michelle Obama. She has been more visible lately with the release of her Netflix documentary and publicity about her co-headlining some virtual graduation ceremonies. Her odds jumped this week from 85.0X to 63.9X. She has been improving the last two months from 178.5X at the beginning of March to 113.2X middle of April. Her current odds are at a 14 months high.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, Warren moved a little closer to Harris and Klobuchar. Masto is perhaps the least publicized candidate but is holding up to lead that second tier.

Here are the full odds:

Many polls were released this week, but most were for strong Biden states (NY, NJ, CT, MA) where Biden’s lead ranged from 19 to 34. There was one swing state pull in IA showing Trump +2. We already have Iowa going to Trump, but this follows an early March poll showing Trump +!0.

No changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Trump 2020

Trump sees small decline, but still widens lead over Biden; Clinton endorses Biden, and sees her own odds jump; Harris and Klobuchar continue to lead for Dem VP; Could TX become a swing state?

Trump’s odds dropped slightly from 1.92X to 1.93X, his lowest odds in seven weeks. His gap with Biden widened however as Biden’s odds dropped by a wider margin moving from 2.13X to 2.27X, his lowest in eight weeks. That puts Trump’s relative odds vs. Biden at 54%, his highest in four weeks.

The number of Democrats endorsing Biden continued to grow, and this week it was Hillary Clinton with the endorsement. Interestingly, Clinton’s odds saw the biggest move this week, jumping from 48.3X to 23.8X, her highest odds since May 2017.

Here are the full odds:

There were no changes in the likely candidates for VP as Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar continued on top of the list, with Warren in the second tier, and Abrams and Whitmer part of the third tier. 5 of the top 8 candidates are female Senators.

Here are the full odds:

On the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Biden +5 in NC
  • Poll showing Biden +1 in TX
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in NH
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in PA
  • Poll showing tie in TX

The two biggest items as far as the polls is the continuing strength of Biden in PA, which is a must win for both candidates, and the possibility of TX flipping to the Democrats. Right now we still have TX in Trump’s column, and as a result there were no changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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