Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020

Government shutdown drags Trump’s odds to lowest point since March; Old guard Dems encouraging Biden to run; Gillibrand announces she is running; Gabbard and Castro see big jumps; Starbucks’ Howard Schultz exploring a run

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for a 10th straight week as the government shutdown headed into its fourth week. The odds are now at 2.90X down from 2.88X last week and 2.43X at the beginning of this streak. The 2.9X is the lowest since March of 2018. Trump’s drop in odds have followed his drop in net approval rating which has dropped from -10% prior to the shutdown to last week’s -13% and this week’s -15%.

“Old guard” Democrats are encouraging former VP Joe Biden to run. His odds seem to reflect a strong likelihood that he will, up for the 7th straight from last week’s 12.0X to this week’s 11.5X. He was at 19.3X at the start of the streak. He remains in 4th place overall.

The trend of candidates announcing their intentions to run continued this week with Kirsten Gillibrand. The NY Senator’s odds improved from 33.9X to 31.3X, and she moved up from 12th place to 11th place.

Two of Gillibrand’s peers, who announced a week earlier, saw even bigger jumps. Tulsi Gabbard improved from 33.0X to 26.8X. That was enough to lift her from 11th to 8th place. Julian Castro improved from 71.1X to 60.5X. That was enough to move him from 19th to 17th place.

Howard Schultz advisers are reportedly exploring a possible 2020 run. The former Starbucks CEO’s odds improved from 93.9X to 87.5X. That was enough to move him from 39th place to 32nd place. He has been as high as 14th place, back in July of 2018.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Brown 2020, Castro 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s odds see small drop as shutdown enters third week; Kamala Harris’ odds reach new highs as she begins book tour; Castro and Gabbard announce intentions to run; Sherrod Brown visiting early voting states

For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds declined, this week from 2.86X to 2.88X. He is now at his lowest odds since the end of February. The government shutdown entered its third week, and it seems to have taken a toll on his odds as well as approval. His net approval dropped this week to -13% from -12% last week and -10% at the start of the shutdown.

Kamala Harris is in the midst of her book tour and some see that as the soft launch to her 2020 campaign. Her odds reached a new high improving from 7.79X to 7.42X as she continues to be the odds favorite for the Democrats. Speculation is she will be announcing soon.

Sherrod Brown continues to move up, improving this week from 28.9X to 26.3X, a new high for him. He is now in 8th place overall. He is planning a trip to Iowa and other early voting states.

Julian Castro became the latest to announce he is running in 2020. His odds improved from 75.3X to 71.1X as he moves up from 23rd place to 19th place. His odds may not fully reflect the announcement as it comes on Saturday morning. The same could be said of Tulsi Gabbard who announced on Friday Her odds saw a slight improvement from 35.6X to 33.0X moving her from 13th place to 11th place.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 659
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Gabbard 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Trump’s odds continue slow decline, Biden’s odds improve with win in Iowa Caucus poll, Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar join the top 10

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their slow decline and are at their lowest since June.  This week marked his 5th straight week of declines moving from 2.65X to 2.67X.  This week had more than usual list of bad headlines for the President including large stock market declines, his Defense Secretary resigning, and a government shutdown over the Wall. His odds were at 2.43X on 11/10 when the declines began. His gap vs. second place (currently Beto O’ Rourke) is now at 2.9X, which is the lowest in over a year. 

Joe Biden won a poll of likely Democrat Iowa Caucus goers last week (32%) followed by Sanders (19%), O’Rourke (11%), Warren (8%), and Harris (5%).  His odds jumped from 16.8X to 15.5X.  These are his best odds in over three months. He remains 4th place overall.

Tulsi Gabbard continues to eye a White House run.  Her odds improved from 35.9X to 33.2X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 into 9th place.  This is only her second visit into the top 10.  The last was 7 weeks ago and only lasted a week.  That came as reports spread about her approaching staffers about a run.

Amy Klobuchar’s public profile continues to grow, this week through an interview with the New Yorker. The odds moved from 36.0X to 33.3X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 as well from 12th place. This is her first visit into the top 10.

Below are the full odds:

 

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Views – 619